Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes are poised to be decided by voters outside major cities like Madison and Milwaukee.
That’s according to fresh Arc Insights polling of 700 likely voters for Fields of Freedom Alliance between Oct. 2 and 6.
Urbanites may clamor for Kamala Harris, but the survey from former Ambassador Terry Branstad’s group dedicated to agricultural interests, suggests rural voters may hold the key to giving Donald Trump a win in the battleground Badger State, cracking the blue wall Democrats rely on in their November strategy.
Trump leads overall in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, a narrow margin that would be, if it manifests, actually more than the fraction of a percentage point he won it by in 2016 and lost it by four years later.
And one cohort is key: His advantage balloons to a 57% to 37% lead among those who live in rural areas.
“Rural voters are giving President Trump the lead in Wisconsin and the advantage to close strong with independent voters,” said Fields of Freedom Alliance Executive Director Jake Swanson.
Swanson told The Post his organization has been engaging with farmers and rural voters in the state for several months: “What we have seen on the ground matches our polling results: Rural voters are especially ready for new leaders in Washington who will restore economic stability, stand up for farmers and fight for America first.”
“This year has been particularly hard for farmers and families in rural America,” he added.
“Farm incomes are forecasted to drop by over $40 billion in 2024. We need champions in Washington who understand the challenges of agriculture and will fight to put America first. The stakes could not be higher in this election.”
Trump leads the vice president on a number of issues of importance to Wisconsinites.
When it comes to controlling government spending, the former president is up 5 points, 49% to 44%.
Voters also trust Trump over the “border Czar” when it comes to stemming the tide of illegal immigration by a 53% to 42% margin, as if they weren’t impressed by the $62,000 Tiffany necklace she wore recently on her first trip to the southern border since taking office.
Sky-high gas prices also leave Harris low in voters’ estimation, amid Trump’s promises to scale up domestic energy production.
He leads on that issue 50% to 42%.
And he also leads on who is more likely to secure true energy independence, 48% to 45%.
Trump also is trusted most when it comes to fair trade by a 49% to 46% spread, amid his proposals to impose tariffs on economic competitors.
Similarly, the former president is seen as more likely to curb inflation, which was rampant during much of the Biden administration, by a 49% to 45% margin.
And voters also believe he’s more likely to get government out of the way of economic growth, by cutting “burdensome regulations.”
The spread on that question: 48% to 42%.
“The poll shows the presidential race in Wisconsin to be very close and an overwhelming margin with rural voters could very well put Trump over the edge,” said Nicholas Thompson of Arc Insights, which conducted the poll.
“Trump’s strong lead on the issues provides a clear path to 50%+1.”
