For those that have been curious as to what in the heck a Billiken is over the past couple days: It’s a charm doll that was invented after being mysteriously seen in someone’s dream.
The No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens mysteriously dismantled No. 8 Georgia, 102-77, with a 18-0 second-half run launching them into the Round of 32.
Now, they’ll get the pleasure of drawing No. 1 Michigan.
The Wolverines put the medal to the floor in the second half Thursday after letting No. 16 Howard hang around with 46 first-half points.
Michigan may have failed to cover the spread in six straight games, but the Billikens big first-round bash doesn’t historically translate well, either:
Per Action Network, when underdogs score 75-plus in the Round of 64, they are only 32-46-1 against the spread (ATS) in the next round since 2005.
The Wolverines still are laying 12.5 points on Saint Louis on Saturday and 57 percent of BetMGM spread bettors are fading them.
Sometimes, it pays to be a contrarian though.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction, odds
The Wolverines clearly have the most imposing physical profile in the field: Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara combined to shoot 16-for-18 with 40 points and 17 rebounds in the opener, and that size will be a problem for Saint Louis. That’s aside from Yaxel Lendeborg providing a true three-level mismatch at the four.
Michigan generates a bounty of looks through cut-and-roll actions, pick-and-pop sets and inside-out sequences orchestrated by Elliot Cadeau. That’s a direct pressure point against a Saint Louis defense that ranks in the bottom 40 percent against rim-cutting actions.
This is where the Wolverines can create separation and Cadeau facilitating downhill movement to bigs can produce high-efficiency offense all afternoon.
There’s also a hidden possession battle here.
Saint Louis ranks 266th in effective possession ratio due to turnover issues, and while Michigan certainly isn’t perfect there either, extra empty trips are a dangerous game in a matchup against a team that just sank 67 percent from the field.
Saint Louis is a top-tier shooting team, no doubt. It finished No. 1 nationally in effective field goal percentage (59.9% percent) and shot over 40 percent from 3.
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This isn’t just about whether Saint Louis scores, though. This is about whether it can get enough stops — and there’s little in its profile that suggests it can
Michigan has cleared 85 points in eight of its last 10 games and hasn’t dipped below 1.0 point per possession since January.
Besides, the Billikens are KenPom’s No. 43 team in offensive rating compared to Michigan at No. 7.
Against a Big Ten power that can score at all three levels and dominate the glass, Saint Louis could be in over its head by deeper minutes of this one.
Hang up the dreamcatchers because Michigan should steer well clear of any nightmares via charm dolls.
THE PLAY: Michigan -12.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
