Is a red wave coming to the Senate in November?
Those who remember the optimistic predictions two years ago from the National Republican Senatorial Committee under the stewardship of then-chair Rick Scott of Florida may feel a sense of déjà vu — or PTSD, depending on their point of view.
But the NRSC, now helmed by Montana Sen. Steve Daines, is every bit as hopeful Republicans have a number of pickup opportunities on this year’s electoral map that could, if all goes as their internal polling projects, garner them 53 Senate seats.
If they succeed, they’ll have built a firewall to hold up for GOP priorities even if Democrats win the White House and Tim Walz were positioned to cast deciding votes on legislation.
The NRSC memo leaked soon after a much more pessimistic document came from Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund, which warned of headwinds facing not only the Senate slate but Donald Trump himself in key states.
McConnell warned personally about “candidate quality” issues in 2022, and while he’s been quiet this cycle, the morose memo did plenty of talking this week.
On a number of races, the internal polls and the analysis are diametrically opposed, with the Ohio providing the most vivid divergence.
Whereas the SLF read had Republican challenger Bernie Moreno down 6 points to Democratic perennial Sen. Sherrod Brown, the NRSC polling shows Moreno up 2 points against the free-spending, underwater incumbent.
The NRSC optimism extends to the top of the ticket, where they see Trump 11 points ahead of Kamala Harris in Ohio, nearly triple the 4-point edge the GOP nominee has in the SLF’s assessment.
Wisconsin is also in the NRSC pickup column, with Eric Hovde “narrowly ahead of Tammy Baldwin 48% to 47% in a head-to-head matchup” and tied with the long-serving Senator in a multi-candidate mix. Hovde, per the NRSC, has improved his favorables and gained 4 points in the last 2 polls.
While the spread here isn’t as striking as Ohio, the SLF saw Hovde as 1 point down in the Blue Wall bastion.
“Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue his growth and consolidate support while driving Baldwin’s negatives up and her position on the ballot down,” the NRSC memo claims.
Speaking of Blue Wall states, the 2 groups diverge sharply on the viability of Mike Rogers’ bid to pick up a Democratic open seat in Michigan.
Whereas the SLF spotlighted an 8-point lead for Democrat Elissa Slotkin, the NRSC depicts a dead heat on a head-to-head ballot test, with Slotkin up by 1 in a multi-candidate scenario.
“Rogers’s name awareness and image have continued to show improvement across the state—40% say they are favorable of Rogers and 38% say unfavorable. He has maintained this marginal net positive image since September. Rogers’s numbers are closing the gap between him and Slotkin and as these trends continue, we see a very attainable victory for our candidate,” the NRSC notes.
The 2 groups agree about Montana flipping, with Tim Sheehy up 8 points against incumbent Jon Tester. But whereas the SLF sees it as a 4 point lead, the NRSC doubles that spread to 8 points, as Tester is underwater and thoroughly defined to the electorate, with only 6% of those in Big Sky Country with no opinion or knowledge of the Democratic Senator.
And in their own ways, both groups provide happy talk about Larry Hogan and vague numbers about his longshot bid for Senate in Maryland.
“Larry Hogan historically closes strong. While the polls remain volatile, this is a margin of error election,” the NRSC argues, with a “huge undecided population in Maryland that trusts the Governor’s leadership but struggles with the idea of a Republican Senate” apparently up for grabs.
With public polls showing Angela Alsobrooks up 9.5 points on average, it is incumbent on the former GOP Governor to mobilize that “huge” and “struggling” cohort. Yet the NRSC argues “the Governor knew this would be the challenge from the very beginning and has strategized accordingly.” [AGG]
