Should you buy into Kuminga, Washington and last season’s other late risers?

The marathon NBA season can’t be fully appreciated or appraised by totals and averages. Over several months, we witness endless surges and swoons, corrections, improvements and adjustments. It’s a winding and episodic experience, much like a baseball season.

Sometimes, such surges signal impending stardom.

After the All-Star break last season, Victor Wembanyama vaulted to an entirely new statistical stratosphere; averaging 27.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.9 blocks (no, really), 1.9 steals, and 2.8 3-pointers per 36 minutes on league-average efficiency while on the floor with point guard Tre Jones. Set to run pick-and-rolls with “Point God” Chris Paul this season, the momentum from a strong spring and Olympic summer could lead to a unique brand of fantasy dominance.

It’s easy to buy stock in Wemby’s fantastic finish, but what about other players who flashed with strong runs after the break last season? Was P.J. Washington‘s awesome playoff production this past summer a mirage or momentum?

The premise of this piece is to identify and investigate which notably strong finishes from last season should be trusted as trends, and which might prove contextual or fleeting. Is it savvy to buy or sell on these shifts in production?

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Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors

While his was more of a midseason eruption, Kuminga undeniably showed the potential to take his game, and fantasy impact, to a new tier last season. Gone is the era of “two timelines” for the franchise, as the build now banks on Kuminga and his young peers to be core contributors along with Stephen Curry, not merely on a development track.

A new level of slashing and cutting acumen saw Kuminga reach new offensive heights in 2023-24, but it’s fact he averaged 1.7 combined steals and blocks per 36 minutes that sells me on his growth being a trend, and not an outlier. Hovering around pick 100 on average in live drafts, there’s still room for profit.

Brandon Miller, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets

Some of the more dramatic first- to second-half splits in the Association last year came from Miller during a quiet rookie season through the lens of Wemby’s and Chet Holmgren‘s marquee exposure. You might not have noticed, which can happen with March basketball in Charlotte, but Miller became an effective and even efficient three-level scorer in the final weeks of the season to the tune of 19 points per game after the break.

It’s not common for a rookie wing to finish at 67% shooting in the restricted area while also becoming a worthy high-volume shooter (up to eight attempts per game from deep after the break). Even as his draft stock rises this fall, it could be worth speculating on another upswing for an emergent player likely to be the featured perimeter scorer in Charles Lee’s system.

P.J. Washington, PF, Dallas Mavericks

From a fantasy perspective, we didn’t see immediate returns from Washington’s transition from Charlotte to Dallas last February. The gifted stretch started and played big minutes right away for Jason Kidd, but it wasn’t until the playoffs that truly impressive production surfaced.

What became clear in that surprising Finals run was Washington’s role as a floor-spacer on offense and a versatile stopper on defense. A deeper look reveals that outside of that three-game shooting surge against the Oklahoma City Thunder last May, that his production closely mimicked the rest of his career. Which is to say, Washington is a capable 3-and-D player, but it’s unlikely his summer showing is sustainable.

Ayo Dosunmu, SG, and Patrick Williams, PF, Chicago Bulls

Coby White‘s ascent from inconsistent bench microwave to bankable bucket helped overshadow diminishing returns from the team’s core of pricey vets. Likely lost in the shuffle was just how well Dosunmu played down the stretch for Chicago last spring; slashing for 16.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, and 1.7 combined steals and blocks after the break.

We’ve witnessed Dosunmu produce as a glue guy in spots before, but a newfound scoring mentality and ability was revealed in the final weeks of the season. A key issue could be a lack of runway for Dosunmu, as the team is now focused on getting Josh Giddy positioned as an offensive engine. And what to make of Zach LaVine? I believe in Dosunmu as a talent, but the rotation doesn’t appear ready to empower him.

As for Williams, injuries limited him yet again last season, but we did see some impressive scoring efficiency and encouraging defensive rates emerge. The pitch is there is more room for Williams to grow now that DeMar DeRozan is in Sacramento and the price in drafts is just a click of a button in the final rounds of drafts.

Taylor Hendricks, PF, and Keyonte George, PG/SG, Utah Jazz

Appearing in just 17 games prior to last year’s All-Star break, Hendricks’ rookie campaign in Salt Lake City started off slowly. After the break, however, he started 23 straight games and posted strong numbers as a combo forward for the lottery-bound club. George similarly secured a starting role later in the year and, somewhat like Dosunmu, showed off scoring prowess that wasn’t always obvious in his scouting profile.

Of the two, I am more interested in investing in George if only because finding assists and playmaking duties can prove difficult past the star tier of players. This doesn’t disqualify Hendricks, however, as there is real potential for him to hover around 30 minutes in a busy and rewarding role for the Jazz this year.

Vince Williams Jr., PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies

A recent foot injury sours the outlook a bit for Williams, but his second-half was impressive enough to suggest that you either stash him or eye for a pickup later in November. It’s difficult to assess Williams’ numbers last season because the rotation was entirely decimated by injuries that he was simply forced to play a ton. Yet, he played well and showed new dimensions of playmaking and two-way play. Thanks to just how much experience and exposure he earned last year, consider me a believer that Williams helps fantasy teams this season.

Jonathan Isaac, PF, Orlando Magic

True fantasy nerds remember Isaac’s wild 34-game showing in the 2019-20 season. Or maybe it’s just me that does. Either way, he posted simply absurd defensive rates reminiscent of a prime Andrei Kirilenko. Since then, injuries have kept Isaac from seeing the floor much, but we shouldn’t dismiss how well he played last spring and into the playoffs.

Regularly topping 20 minutes in the series against the Cavaliers, Isaac’s all-world defensive upside was on display. It’s hard to buy that Isaac ever returns to heavy minutes again, but there is still real sleeper status present if he can even just mimic his playoff role for Orlando this year.