College football’s 12-team playoff presents scenarios we have never seen in the sport’s entire history.
Schools are hosting postseason games in late December, and there is no way to accurately predict the impact, especially given the inclement weather.
Over the course of the two weeks on the betting board, we’ve only seen slight line movement on the showdown in Happy Valley.
Sixth-ranked Penn State is an 8.5-point home favorite over No. 11 SMU in a “White Out” game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
SMU vs. Penn State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | +8.5 (-110) | +245 | o53.5 (-105) |
| Penn State | -8.5 (-110) | -310 | u53.5 (-115) |
I’ve personally witnessed this impressive and intimidating environment but the noon kickoff (as opposed to primetime) does minimize the impact to a certain degree.
I also think we will see a much more composed Mustangs squad than we saw in the ACC title game.
Frankly, SMU was not ready for the pressure and magnitude. Its playoff future hung in the balance against Clemson on Dec. 7, and the Mustangs made multiple first-quarter errors to dig themselves a 21-0 hole.
However, after that initial meltdown, the Mustangs settled down and rallied to tie the game.
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This time, Rhett Lashlee will have his guys ready and loose.
I also expect quarterback Kevin Jennings to play like he did in the second half, which mirrored his play all season after he took over as the starter.
This is an explosive offense and strong defensive front that should allow the Mustangs to hang around.
Meanwhile, while I was impressed with Penn State’s resilience in the Big Ten title game, James Franklin is still involved.
He’s a good coach but also has a knack for only dominating bad and mediocre teams, while coaching too conservatively in these types of high-stakes matchups.
Read more of Doug Kezirian’s analysis at Only Players
I like the underdog with the points and think there’s even a small chance they win outright. Let me put it this way. A four-leg moneyline parlay of all four favorites is +200. Even a parlay with just the three Saturday favorites is +115. That means it is more likely than not a home team fails to hold serve.
And I think the Mustangs are the ones who can play spoiler.
BEST BET: SMU +8.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
