St. John’s is 3-0 on the year with three 20-plus point wins.
Of course, the Johnnies haven’t played anybody, overwhelming Fordham, Quinnipiac and Wagner.
New Mexico will be Rick Pitino and Co.’s toughest test yet.
The Lobos have already posted a KenPom top-25 win after beating UCLA last Friday in Las Vegas.
Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph are a formidable inside-out duo.
These are two similar squads, and I think the Lobos have a fighting chance of keeping it close for 40 minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | +8.5 (-108) | +290 | Over 161.5 (-114) |
| St. John’s | -8.5 (-112) | -375 | Under 161.5 (-106) |
New Mexico vs. St. John’s prediction
(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Both squads run up-tempo, transition-reliant offenses centered around their backcourts. The Lobos and Johnnies will put the ball in their guards’ hands and let them run the open court for 40 minutes.
Both squads have talented frontcourt pieces but limited frontcourt depth. They are also limited in the shooting and spacing departments, often creating in the mid-range.
These are two above-average transition defenses, so while I expect plenty of transition attempts, both might find trouble scoring efficiently.
But there are a few matchup wrinkles that favor the Lobos.
In theory, Coach Pitino’s matchup zone defense should neutralize ball-screen actions.
But in practice, the Johnnies’ ball-screen coverage has been more than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed last season (.88) and allowed opponents to run the set at a well-above-average rate.
That doesn’t bode well for this matchup, given the Lobos run almost exclusively ball-screen sets with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil in the half-court.
Additionally, I’m impressed with New Mexico’s rim pressure in the early season. The Lobos are averaging 28 at-the-rim field-goal attempts per game (98th percentile). That will undoubtedly result in higher-efficiency shots than St. John’s mid-range-reliant attack.
The Johnnies ranked 325th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate last season, and their most significant offseason addition is former Seton Hall guard Kadary Richmond, a talented two-way player who spends too much time pedaling in the middle of the floor.
I’m also uncertain how the Red Storm’s offense will look without Joel Soriano.
Sunday will be their first true test without their former star center.
He grabbed a million offensive rebounds last year, masking a shooting-deficient roster by creating consistent second-chance offense.
This year’s roster doesn’t have an adequate replacement, especially if they keep playing the 6-foot-7 RJ Luis at the four.
That gets to a more overarching point about roster continuity.
Teams with more returning production tend to outperform teams with less in the early season — fully formed teams perform better than the transfer-laden ones in November and December.
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New Mexico ranks 66th nationally in minutes continuity (49%), while St. John’s ranks 263rd (22%).
The Johnnies are relying on four transfers for significant possession minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s pick
The Lobos and Johnnies play very similar schemes, making me think the two will play a closely-contested game.
But I’m willing to back New Mexico’s returning players and ball-screen offense against St. John’s transfers and sketchy ball-screen coverage defense.
Best Bet: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)
