Saint Mary’s will make its fifth straight NCAA Tournament appearance in its first-round matchup against Texas A&M on Thursday.
The South region’s seventh-seeded Gaels are 3-1 in those first-round appearances, and enter the tournament with a 27-5 record after tying Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference regular season title.
The 10th-seeded Aggies, who opened as 2.5-point underdogs, will make their fourth straight trip to the dance with a 2-1 record in their opening games in that span.
They finished their regular season tied for fourth in the SEC standings at a 21-11 mark under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan.
McMillan deserves some credit for a winning season after former head coach Buzz Williams took pretty much everyone on the roster with him to Maryland.
Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s prediction, odds
This is a tough draw for the Aggies.
For starters, Saint Mary’s outsizes them all over the place.
Size was a recurring issue for Texas A&M throughout the season, as McMillan had to persevere by playing small ball with 6-foot-7 center Rashaun Agee.
Here, they’ll have to contend with the 13th-biggest team in the nation; Saint Mary’s is anchored by 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever and deploys multiple guys standing at 6-foot-7.
Interior scoring becomes harder for A&M, and defensive rebounding will be a very steep uphill battle.
Saint Mary’s is ranked in the top 15 in both rebounds and rebounding percentage with an astounding plus-11 rebound margin.
Texas A&M allows 32.5 percent of its own missed shots to be grabbed by the opposition.
Even if shooting is equal here, Saint Mary’s is likely to get more opportunities, and in a tournament setting, possessions matter.
An upset for the Aggies would depend on how well they can force turnovers and create chaos with pace and pressure.
But Saint May’s is uniquely built to neutralize that game plan. The Gaels are the nation’s No. 1 team in free-throw percentage and win with strong half-court execution.
Texas A&M is wildly inconsistent with streaky shooters in Pop Isaacs, Rylan Griffen and Rubén Domínguez.
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The Aggies went 4-7 in their last 11 games, followed by an 83-63 blowout to Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament on March 12.
The Aggies push a fast-tempo game while Saint Mary’s plays at a more controlled pace.
When those two speeds collide, the slower, more disciplined team usually dictates the terms. This line is as thin as it is because of Texas A&M’s big point output and the SEC vs. WCC perception.
Size and rebounding will outmatch shooting variance.
THE PLAY: St. Mary’s -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
