THE RULER’S BACK
Welcome to the 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Blueprint, where we channel the spirit of Jay-Z’s iconic trilogy (and others from Jay-Z’s deep catalog) to help you orchestrate a championship-winning team. Get ready to dive into strategy, ranks, tiers and analyst tips to help you dominate your drafts.
From sleeper picks to breakout stars, we have everything you need to turn your fantasy basketball draft into a masterpiece. It’s time to step up your game and build your version of a dynasty.
Let’s get started!
MAGNA CARTA: How to get ready for drafts
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Understand your league’s scoring system: It sounds simple, but if you’re new to this, ensure you understand the format and league settings. Each league can have its own unique scoring settings. Familiarize yourself with these rules to draft players best suited to your league’s format. Whether it’s points, categories or rotisserie, tailoring a strategy to these rules can give you a crucial edge. The default scoring for private and public free leagues is head-to-head points (like fantasy football) and the default scoring for public prize leagues is head-to-head categories. Click here for a quick overview on different formats.
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Formulate a plan: Create a plan that includes multiple scenarios and backup options for each round. This flexibility allows you to adapt to unexpected player runs or surprises, ensuring you make the most of every pick.
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Mock Draft! You can’t come in raw and unprepared — practice makes perfect! Participate in Yahoo mock drafts to get a feel for trends and a sense of player values. It’s a battle-tested way to try strategies and see where’s the likeliest places to snag your must-have players.
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Check my latest points and category league rankings: I’ve updated them weekly over the past month to account for injuries, role changes, competition and more. Points here, categories here.
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Monitor preseason performance: Keep an eye on preseason games to catch rising stars and evaluate how players fit into new team roles. While preseason stats can be misleading, they often hint at players who might have increased opportunities in the upcoming season.
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Use player projections: Yahoo’s 2024-2025 projections are available once you’ve signed up for a league. If you’re looking for additional resources, Hashtag Basketball and FantasyPros have free projection models, too.
HOLY GRAIL: Draft strategy
I strive for balance between category leagues and points leagues, and to achieve that, I follow a simple formula:
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Get guards who cover points, assists, 3s and steals and shoot a high FT%.
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Get bigs who get points, rebounds and blocks with a high FG%.
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Turnovers are variable, but this build makes you competitive in eight categories and has a strong framework for points leagues.
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Hone in on the players with the steady minutes and high usage rates (north of 20%)
No draft is created equal, so you must be ready to pivot and be flexible. You’re not going to get all of your targets, so knowing how to manage the value that falls and when to reach for a player you want is important, too.
Make sure you have a depth chart handy because it’ll help a lot as you get to the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. That’s where you find the value and build the depth necessary to make it through a fantasy basketball season.
Optimal draft slots
In a 10 or 12-team league, I want to get picks 1-4 because you avoid the players with heightened injury profiles like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Tyrese Haliburton.
I also like the backend of the first round in 12-team leagues because you can catch the residual value of players who fell outside the top 10 and then follow up with an immediate complementary pick to start building your core.
REASONABLE DOUBT: Draft mistakes to avoid
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Selecting injured players: Players who are hurt or have injury-prone labels will undoubtedly slide in drafts. Availability matters, and you’ll have a higher floor if you avoid them, leaving your draft with a player who’ll get fantasy points off the rip.
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Ben Simmons: He’s healthy with a few jumper reels in an empty gym. We’ve seen this movie before.
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Not setting your draft queue: Stack at least 3-5 players in your queue to save yourself from a panic or auto-pick. If you’re in shark-infested waters, make it 10 to account for sniping.
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Punting: Don’t overcomplicate your draft by attempting this veteran draft strategy. Punting only applies to category leagues, but for those unaware, here’s the TL;DR: Punting is when you neglect certain categories to gain an advantage in others.
THE TAKEOVER: Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick
I can easily justify Nikola Jokić — a three-time MVP and perennial top-three finisher as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts. However, if I get the first pick in any draft, it will be Victor Wembanyama. He’s a cheat code on a trajectory to be the most versatile stat-stuffer we’ve seen in a long time.
Wemby finished in the top 12 in points and category formats in his first season. He had the highest usage rate for a rookie in NBA history and put up the second-most fantasy points for a rookie in the modern era. Defensively, he led the league in blocks, and his 10% block rate was the second-highest in the history of the NBA — again, he was a rookie!
There is considerable hype with Wemby, so you’re not wrong to go with the sure thing in Jokić. Jokić rarely misses games and has 114 triple-doubles since 2019 (the most in the NBA). Wemby won’t match Jokić’s efficiency from the field or his assist production, but in scoring, rebounding and steals, he’s on par, along with two defining outliers: blocks and 3s.
I’ve likened Wemby to a 3-point-shooting David Robinson, and that’s probably underselling his ceiling. I have Wembanyama at the top spot, but I get it if you think Jokić is the right move — he most certainly is. It’s a win-win situation.
But if you have the first pick and want to experience a true changing of the guard with historic-level production, Wemby is the guy.
THE GIFT & THE CURSE: Coaching systems to buy into/avoid
TEAMS TO BUY
New York Knicks: Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau famously plays his starters a lot of minutes (often to their long-term detriment), which won’t change this season. The Knicks starters averaged the second-most minutes per game in the NBA. With so much financial investment in their core of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns, expect them to be among the top 10 in minutes played.
Boston Celtics: The Celtics are fantasy gold. Their dominance over real-life basketball last year (top seed, first in offensive rating and second in defensive rating) also translated to fantasy. Boston had the most players inside the top 85 of any team (six) last season. With or without Kristaps Porziņģis to start the year, under Head Coach Joe Mazullam, this team is a fantasy-friendly machine.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Selecting players from the best teams is always good practice. There will always be situations where non-competitive teams have their moments, but OKC was third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating last season. Then, they added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. This team could legitimately support five players inside the top 80 in fantasy basketball. Strong buy.
Phoenix Suns: Four Phoenix starters averaged over 33 minutes per game last season because of a lack of depth and injuries. Now, with head coach Mike Budenholzer at the helm, expect the Suns to take a more conservative approach to playing starters heavy minutes. While that might seem like a knock to fantasy output, Budenholzer’s offensive scheme centers around motion and launching 3s. He’s known for turning offenses around, and the proof was in winning a championship with the Bucks while also turning them into a top-10 team in Pace and Offensive rating during his tenure. With so much firepower on offense, this Suns squad will look much different under coach Bud.
Indiana Pacers: Over the past two seasons, Rick Carlisle has transformed the Pacers into one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. A quicker pace generates more possessions, creating more opportunities to aggregate fantasy points.
TEAMS TO AVOID
Golden State Warriors: The rotations are too fluid. After Stephen Curry goes as an early pick, you won’t see another Warrior selected until the ninth or 10th rounds. Will Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga break out, or will vets like Buddy Hield, Andrew Wiggins and De’Anthony Melton re-emerge? Who knows, who cares — save yourself from agony.
Orlando Magic: I like three Magic players — Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. After that, you can ignore Orlando players because head coach Jamaal Mosley notoriously uses a deep, 10-man rotation. Without an injury, it’ll be tough for any other player to emerge beyond a waiver pickup.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland is a bad team with a weird roster construction. Given the Blazers’ tanking ambitions, I’d fade every Blazers player not named Anfernee Simons or Deni Avdija.
Brooklyn Nets: A first-time head coach already experimenting with quirky lineups makes me queasy. On top of that, there will inevitably be salary dumps as they move closer to their developmental long game. Outside of Cam Thomas and Nic Claxton, there’s not much upside with Nets players until we get to the second half of the season and see more of Noah Clowney.
Washington Wizards: Like the Nets and Blazers, the Wizards’ tanking prospects muck up their fantasy outlook. Jordan Poole is the safest bet given his age and Washington’s financial commitment, but make no mistake, the team will prioritize development over wins, which can be frustrating for veteran players and continuity.
SOME PEOPLE HATE: Rookies who could make an impact
Full disclosure: I am some people.
Wemby and Chet Holmgren aside, I’m typically not high on drafting rookies in fantasy. Many factors are at play — age, maturity, role, confidence, skill set, opportunity — you name it. It’s not easy for a rookie in this league and the same goes for fantasy. Still, here are five players I’d either draft or put on my watchlist.
Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies: There’s been a lot of slander about the two-time National Player of the Year. However, I have the 7-foot-4 big man as my highest-ranked rookie heading into draft season. He’ll start at center and be a prominent screener, a la Steven Adams for Memphis. Barring foul trouble, Edey will average at least 20 minutes per night. His size is a catalyst for his upside in fantasy as a rebounder, shot-blocker and high-percentage scorer near the rim.
Alex Sarr, PF, Washington Wizards: The No. 2 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft made the list because he profiles as an above-average defender. Sarr’s offensive game needs work, but his versatility as a switchable perimeter and rim protector could put him in play as a stocks specialist.
Reed Sheppard, SG, Houston Rockets: Sheppard will be the best player in this draft class. Unfortunately, for fantasy managers, he plays for one of the deepest teams in the NBA. While he has SG eligibility now, there’s a good chance he’ll mix in at PG as the season wears on because his skill set is too versatile not to have the ball in his hands. He’s efficient and had one of the highest steal rates in the NCAA as a freshman, so he’s certainly a player who will benefit from any injury in the Rockets’ backcourt.
Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls: Buzelis is a late-round flier and a dark horse for Rookie of the Year. The soon-to-be 20-year-old Chicago native is shaping up to have a fantasy-relevant role as one of the primary scorers off the bench. Patrick Williams’ job is far from safe and if Zach LaVine is traded, Buzelis will be a must-roster player.
Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat: I saw Ware at the Vegas Summer League, and he reminded me of a mix of Dereck Lively and LaMarcus Aldridge. He could end up playing backup center right away, or he could easily ride the pine. Either way, I see the talent. It’s just a matter of when he’ll have a chance to get meaningful minutes for fantasy.
MOMENT OF CLARITY: Tiers and rankings
I’ve included links to my rankings and positional tiers below, so you can take a deeper look at the draft landscape. For a glimpse of how things stack up, check out the top of my tiers for each position in the graphic below.
SOMEHOW, SOMEWAY: Guys on my roster after Draft Day
Before I speak on the players I’m targeting, here is my list of breakouts by position (guards, forwards and centers). Some names will be repeats because I try to draft the players I talk about.
Anthony Edwards – SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves: Ranking Edwards 10th overall is the closest thing to standing on business.
James Harden – PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers: Harden is one of a handful of players who can average 20 points with 10 assists. Kawhi Leonard will be load managed which only increases Harden’s usage and workload.
LaMelo Ball – PG/SG, Charlotte Hornets: You’re getting a nice injury discount in the late-second round for a player with first-round upside. He’s rocking ankle braces now with a way better supporting cast.
Tyrese Maxey – PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers: Maxey will be the next 50/40/90 guard in the league. Plus, Joel Embiid and Paul George will miss plenty of games to prop up Maxey’s fantasy value. He’s an ascending star who’s efficiency, scoring and playmaking are still improving so we have yet to see anywhere close to his ceiling.
Evan Mobley – PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers: Entering his fourth season, he’s been a steady contributor to rebounds, blocks and FG%. This season, expect to see a bump in assists and usage under new coach Kenny Atkinson. A top-30 finish incoming?
Jalen Williams – SG/SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder: J-Dub goes right around Mobley and Jalen Johnson but Williams is the preferred option. He’s a perfect blend of versatility (three positional eligibility), efficiency and production with top-30 potential.
Jalen Duren – C, Detroit Pistons: The third-year center is one of my breakouts. He’s one of the top double-double aggregators in the game, is an efficient scorer (FG% and FT%) and word is he’ll be facilitating more. Baby Dwight is about to be a menace.
Immanuel Quickley – PG/SG, Toronto Raptors: Toronto’s new franchise PG showed us that he can thrive alongside RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes. He should be in the running for Most Improved Player and he’s a prime target of mine when going guard heavy.
Josh Giddey – SG/SF, Chicago Bulls: The minutes, usage and opportunity are in abundance as the starting PG for the Bulls. He can play PG through SF and will rack up plenty of points, rebounds and assists in the sixth round.
Cam Thomas – SG, Brooklyn Nets: The usage is going through the roof and he’ll be one of the top scorers in the NBA.
Jabari Smith Jr. – PF/C, Houston Rockets: It’s not talked about enough how Smith Jr. improved in eight categories in his second season. With an ADP in the seventh round, he’s a pretty cheap big who can score, rebound, hit 3s and hopefully increase his block percentage.
Jusuf Nurkić – C, Phoenix Suns: More 3s in a five-out offensive scheme system means Nurkić will probably become a better rebounding version of Brook Lopez. At cost, he’s my alternative if Jabari is gone.
Ivica Zubac – C, Los Angeles Clippers: He’s one of the cheapest double-double threats available around pick 100. No brainer late-round big who has a great rapport with James Harden.
Keyonte George – PG/SG, Utah Jazz: I got George in more points than category leagues because it hides his inefficiencies. Still, I’m good with his 10th-round ADP knowing how he performed as a starter last year. In 44 starts, George averaged 15-3-5. That’s surely going up with more minutes on a rebuilding squad.
Amen Thompson, SG/SF, Houston Rockets and Ausar Thompson – SF/PF, Detroit Pistons: Don’t leave drafts with one of the Thompson brothers. They’re late-round picks who are natural stat stuffers on both ends. I prefer Amen but if Ausar ends up in the starting lineup, draft him instead.
Deni Avdija – SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers: The trade from Washington seemed like a lateral move until Shaedon Sharpe’s injury. I like Avdija more now, and his 127 ADP is low for the value and decent floor he’ll provide for the Blazers and fantasy managers.
Karlo Matkovic – PF, New Orleans Pelicans: My deep sleeper who will go undrafted but become fantasy-relevant. I’ve saved my last pick for him in a couple of deep leagues because he’ll pan out as the most versatile, floor spacing center on the Pel’s roster.
WHAT MORE CAN I SAY?
Thanks for vibing with The Fantasy Basketball Blueprint. You have my tips, strategies and my favorite targets, now it’s time to take the throne. Good luck this season!
“Remind yourself. Nobody built like you, you design yourself” – Jay-Z, A Dream, Blueprint 2
