Most swing state polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the swing states that will decide the election. But two southern state pollsters are bucking the trend — and they’ve got former President Donald Trump up big.
The polling by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar in seven battleground states finds Trump on a path to 296 electoral votes — suggesting that Harris has already lost her momentum.
Matt Towery of Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage found Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina (and down by 0.4% only in Georgia).
He noted that both he and Robert Calahy of Trafalgar (which handled Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) were both in the top 3 of pollsters in the ‘16 and ‘20 cycles because their methodology allows them to “pick up some Trump vote that some of the other pollsters might not be able to get.”
To be sure, all of Trump’s leads are narrow and within the margin of error — meaning the states could still very well go either way on Election Day.
But, Towery believes Harris is stalling now that her novelty has worn off.
“The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,” Towery said.
And surges in Democratic enthusiasm seen in polls after Harris replaced Biden have also slowed, and are now “close to parity,” he said.
The “turnout election” will be shaped heavily by next week’s “make or break” presidential debate, he believes.
If Trump presents a “realistic” version of himself, “this could become a real turning point like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal” in 1980, Towery predicted.
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For his part, South Carolina-based Calahy agreed about the debate’s importance.
He said that it’s possible that the former president may say something that “overshadows” the rest of the event — but that Harris has “the most to lose” and is in a “no-win situation.”
Calahy sees “conservative Democrats” coming over to Trump’s side in numbers that exceed crossover for Harris, and also suggests that her disinterest in interviews has left the media feeling “ignored” and “angry.”
But despite the polling looking good for Trump, Calahy cautions the “Democratic machine” can shave “a point or 2” off of the spread. Therefore, a narrow lead in September may not be the final outcome.
