An alarming change in the forecast now shows the potential for a dangerous hurricane to strike the west coast of Florida later this week with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rain.
The budding cyclone was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen on Saturday morning by the National Hurricane Center, but it’s now expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by early to middle of next week, eventually reaching Florida on Wednesday.
The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm.
“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “It just means the odds are significantly higher (Saturday) than they were (Friday) that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead.”
What’s the latest with Tropical Depression 14?
Tropical Depression Fourteen is about 240 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It has peak winds of 35 mph and is moving northeast at 3 mph.
What’s the forecast for Tropical Depression 14?
TD Fourteen is forecast to pick up speed early next week and turn to the east/northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday with rapid strengthening likely during the early part of the week, according to the NHC. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it’ll take the name Milton.
“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm offshore (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is this? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Decent chance. And these models, they say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, Category three. We can’t even rule that out.”
He added: “There is really no good news in any of these various computer forecasts, but here we are.”
The NHC echoes those concerns.
“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said Saturday morning.
How much rain is expected?
Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 5-8 inches of rainfall over the next week, with some areas nearing a foot of rain.
Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.
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The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.
In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.
“The bottom line is we do have the potential for a significant, problematic, impactful storm coming toward Florida Tuesday, Wednesday-ish of next week,” Norcross said.
What’s to be expected with the rest of hurricane season?
The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.
According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.
The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.
There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.
