James Madison doesn’t control its own destiny when it comes to making the College Football Playoff, but it does control whether or not it forces the selection committee into a tough decision.
The Dukes need to beat Troy in the Sun Belt Championship to get that far, and then it will be up to the decision-makers to make the call on whether James Madison’s credentials are superior to the winner of the AAC title game between North Texas and Tulane, or Duke’s, should the Blue Devils beat Virginia in the ACC Championship.
Another wrinkle in all of this is that James Madison’s head coach, Bob Chesney, is set to be announced as the new head coach of UCLA in the coming days.
Sun Belt Championship: Troy vs. James Madison odds, prediction
The betting market doesn’t think that Troy stands much of a chance of ruining the drama. The Trojans (8-4, 6-2) are 23.5-point underdogs in Friday’s contest, which will take place at James Madison.
There is no questioning that the Dukes are the class of the Sun Belt. James Madison’s rise from the FCS has been meteoric, and things are only looking up, even with Chesney exiting stage left.
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While adding the caveat that the Dukes played a soft schedule, it is hard not to be impressed by their profile. James Madison ranks 21st in yards per play, ninth in points per game, and 17th in yards per game. The defense is even more impressive, ranking inside the top-10 in FBS in yards allowed, points allowed, and yards per play conceded.
Troy’s statistical profile pales in comparison, but they’re not some also-ran. The Trojans boast numbers you’d expect out of a team that is competing for the Sun Belt Crown. They rank 82nd in offense, per SP+, and 81st in defense. The stats don’t pop, but they’re not terrible.
The Dukes are the better team in this matchup, but the spread is clearly being impacted by the situation. James Madison needs to impress the committee to give itself the best opportunity to get into the College Football Playoff, and bettors are clearly pouring money into that narrative.
Troy should provide more resistance than these odds imply.
The Play: Troy +23.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
