The Trump campaign is growing bullish over data it’s seeing showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states relative to where the party stood in the 2020 election cycle.
The campaign sees signs that new and infrequent voters are breaking more toward Republicans than Democrats relative to four years ago, based on the latest indications from the four battleground states that reveal partisan registration during early voting: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to a source in the camp.
In addition, “In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot,” the source said, suggesting the Dems’ numbers might not be as strong this time around.
Even in the other three battleground states where data about party affiliation in early voting is not available, the Trump campaign is seeing a number of bright spots that could foreshadow a favorable outcome, the source said.
Here are some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting, mixed with other early-voter information for added context:
Arizona
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 8 points.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.
Early voting in the Grand Canyon State closed Nov. 1. Men comprised about 50% of the votes for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to the data shared with The Post.
Other groups have reported apparent advantages for Republicans here, too. For instance, there have been 924,524 GOP ballot returns, relative to 736,569 for Democrats, according to early-vote data compiled by UpLift Campaigns.
Georgia
The Peach State doesn’t have voter registration information for its early votes.
Looking at data from Democratic analyst Tom Bonier, the African American early vote and mail turnout dipped 7% relative to 2020.
Early voting in Georgia stopped Nov. 1. Its turnout soared to 4,004,588 both through early voting and absentee voting by mail this year, compared to the 2,697,822 early voters four years ago, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
Michigan
The Wolverine State similarly lacks voter registration information for its early votes.
But the Trump campaign is touting data suggesting that in-person early voters represent about 32% of the pre-Election Day votes cast and that its supporters typically favor in-person voting. In-person early voting is new in Michigan.
More than 2.58 million of the over 7 million people registered to vote in Michigan have cast early votes, according to data from the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office.
North Carolina
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 1 point.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.
This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever clinched the early vote in North Carolina.
Data from Bonier suggests that African American mail and early-vote returns have sunk 22% relative to 2020 here. Men comprised about 37% of the Democratic support and 49% of Republican support.
In-person early voting in the Old North State stopped Nov. 2.
There have been about 4.4 million early votes cast out of the roughly 7.8 million registered voters in North Carolina, including 1,478,496 for Republicans, 1,436,861 for Democrats and 1,524,094 without a party registration, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Nevada
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 4 points.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 8 points.
Early in-person voting was closed off Nov. 1. Roughly 42% of Democratic votes came from men and 52% from Republicans.
Across the board, Nevada saw about 1,077,441 voters turn out early, including 406,705 from Republicans and 363,595 from Democrats, according to data.
Pennsylvania
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Democrats up 23 points
Relative to 2020: Republicans are faring 22 points better.
The Trump campaign believes that Democrats’ early-vote advantage in the Keystone State has slipped from past elections, with total absentee ballots plummeting about 29% relative to the 2020 cycle.
There have been at least 1,739,606 early votes cast in Pennsylvania, including 971,615 from Democrats and 571,725 from Democrats, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.
Wisconsin
The Badger State lacks voter registration information for its early votes.
Still, the Trump campaign believes that early votes and mail-in ballots have slipped 23% since 2020 and that mail-in ballot requests are down 52% from 2020.
There have been at least 1,338,728 early votes cast in Wisconsin, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. There are more than 4.7 million registered voters there.
Overall, there have been about 76 million early votes cast across the country, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. For context, a grand total of 252 million turned out in the 2020 election.
In the 2020 election cycle, early voting generally favored Democrats while in-person generally hewed toward Republicans. Former President Donald Trump has long railed against early voting.
This time around, Trump, 78, and Republicans generally have encouraged their voters to cast ballots early in order to close the gap with Democrats.
The in-person voter dichotomy with the 2020 election cycle is not guaranteed to hold true in 2024. The 2020 election dynamic had been skewed by the COVID-19 respiratory virus.
