The Land of 10,000 Lakes may not have seemed like an electoral battleground when the state’s governor got picked for the presidential ticket.
But now it may be a different matter, per a MinnPost-Embold Research poll, which shows the narrowest gap in any Minnesota survey between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who picked favorite son Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
And independent voters are the reason.
Harris leads by just over 4 points, 48.8% to 44.6%, which is an even narrower margin than the 5-point lead she had in a poll a Minnesota TV station released two weeks ago.
A big part of why Trump is so close in a state with a D+7 registration advantage: Independent voters are rallying to him by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
Forty percent of those polled say they back the former president, while only 23% support Harris.
Trump has been competitive in Minnesota before, of course; in 2016, Hillary Clinton eked out a victory by fewer than 45,000 votes. In that election, nearly 9% of voters backed other candidates, with Libertarian Gary Johnson leading the field of also-rans with almost 4%.
While third-party candidates don’t pack the same punch this cycle, it’s a measure of the independence of Minnesota voters in what could be a dark-horse battleground in November.
This survey of 1,616 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 4 and 8, before what looks likely to be the only televised debate between the two major-party candidates.
Regardless, it suggests enthusiasm for Harris isn’t what it should be in a state seemingly clinched with the Walz pick.
Part of the problem is that Walz himself doesn’t have resounding approval.
While the 50% of Minnesota voters who like him in this poll save him from being underwater in his home state, he doesn’t seem to be delivering the bump needed for a historic victory — or even one that approaches the 7-point win President Biden had in 2020, if these numbers are accurate.
Harris dominates, predictably, in the major population center of the state.
Trump musters just 21% support in the Twin Cities, with 73% of those in Minneapolis and St. Paul backing the vice president.
Yet outside major cities, Minnesota is Trump Turf.
In the seven counties surrounding the Twin Cities, the former president leads by less than a percentage point.
And in Greater Minnesota (read: everywhere else in the state), Trump has 61% support, 28 points ahead of Harris.
