Vice President Harris and former President Trump are virtually deadlocked in Virginia, which has emerged as a surprise battleground state in the 2024 presidential contest.
Harris had the support of 47% of Old Dominion voters compared to Trump’s 46%, according to a new survey on Friday from the University of Mary Washington.
The survey was conducted by UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Sept. 3-9, and included third party candidates who netted 4%.
Harris’ lead increased slightly to 48-46 in a head-to-head matchup.
Both results were well within the margin of error, indicating a statistical dead heat.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said UMW political scientist Stephen J. Farnsworth. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
The news is unwelcome for a Harris campaign that once expected Virginia to be in the bag.
President Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020 and Hillary Clinton took the state in 2016.
Former President Obama won Virginia in both 2012 and 2008.
The latest polling confirms other surveys that Virginia has become a nail-biter as the race enters the home stretch. While Virginia has trended redder in recent years — notably electing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021 — most forecasters continue to believe it remains Harris’ to lose.
