Former President Donald Trump is nearing a prohibitive lead over Kamala Harris in one southern swing state, while the other’s too close to call, new polling finds.
The Quinnipiac University surveys released Wednesday show the Republican nominee threatening a blowout in Georgia, where he trounced President Biden in a debate this summer that led to Harris’ installation as the Democratic nominee.
Trump is up 52% to 45% among 1,328 likely voters polled between Oct. 10 and 14, with Libertarian Chase Oliver and Green Jill Stein taking 1% each.
The ex-prez is ahead with independents, 49% to 42% for Harris.
He’s also largely attained parity with female voters, trailing by just 6 points.
And in an inversion of a long-standing paradigm that’s seen college-educated voters backing Harris in polls, Trump leads with that cohort, 53% to 45%.
He does that while maintaining strength with voters without degrees, taking 79% to Harris’ 19%. He’s also up by 20 points with men and leading with every age group.
While the vice president still has a 31-point edge with people voting by mail (just 9% of the survey respondents) and a 10-point advantage with early in-person voters, those showing up on Election Day are down with the Donald in what is an R+5 sample.
Trump takes 66% of those who say they will vote Nov. 5. That’s 37% of the overall sample.
Harris is 7 points underwater on personal favorability, while Trump is 5 points up, suggesting the race’s overall spread is a direct reflection of voter sentiments and likely baked into the cake when it comes to November’s outcome.
And despite her posturing of empathy, she’s also underwater in terms of being seen as caring about voters — where Trump is in positive territory.
Trump is +12 on the economy and +16 on immigration, two of voters’ hottest issues this year and another indication of the headwinds facing Harris down the stretch.
And he’s +9 when it comes to which candidate is most trusted to handle an emergency.
The Tar Heel State, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, is stickier for the man from Mar-A-Lago among the 1,031 likely voters polled the same dates as the Georgia field work.
Harris is up 49% to 47% on the full ballot (which is +3 for Democrats in terms of participation), with a 4-point edge among independents, a 16-point lead among college-educated voters and a 26-point lead with women (even as Trump is +2 with white women in the state).
Trump does hold the advantage with in-person North Carolina voters, taking 58% of that group, which only make up 36% of the total sample. It follows that if he wants to close the gap, Election Day get-out-the-vote may be significant.
Trump isn’t helped by gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, as the lieutenant governor doesn’t appear to be recovering from his recent scandals in time to turn his race around.
Robinson, who sued CNN Tuesday over the reporting that hit his campaign hardest, is down 52% to 40% against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and in an 18-point hole among independent voters.
