UFC 309 by the numbers: GOAT vs. GOAT, retirements, history at MSG

The UFC will host its second to last pay-per-view event of the year next week, as the promotion takes its show on the road to New York’s Madison Square Garden for UFC 309.

In the main event, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his belt on the line against former champion Stipe Miocic. This fight was initially supposed to occur at UFC 295 a year ago, but Jones was forced to withdraw because of a torn pectoral tendon.

This will be Miocic’s first time in action inside the Octagon since 2021. Luckily for MMA fans, it will be against new opposition. Miocic’s five fights since 2018 have been against the same two opponents: Francis Ngannou and Daniel Cormier.

There are also plenty of other intriguing fights on the card, as Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler go head-to-head in the co-main event and rising prospect Bo Nickal returns to action.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind UFC 309, starting with the highly anticipated heavyweight title fight.

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1

The first time in men’s UFC history that two GOATs of different weight classes fight

Though the UFC is still a relatively young promotion — November marks 31 years since the company was founded in 1993 — it seems there aren’t many “firsts” left to check off the list.

Perhaps, the most notable remaining first is a matchup between the greatest fighters of two different divisions.

Sure, there have been plenty of champion vs. champion fights. And plenty of great matchups between fighters with a case for calling themselves the best within the same division. But, the main event of UFC 309 is different.

When Jones, the best light heavyweight in MMA history, squares off against Miocic, the UFC’s most decorated heavyweight, it will be the first time two UFC divisional GOATs have gone head to head.

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2011

The last time Jon Jones stepped in the Octagon without a title on the line

Jones’ run of dominance has been remarkable. Of his 23 fights since making his UFC debut in 2008, more than two-thirds have had title implications. Each of Jones’ last 16 fights has been for a UFC championship.

Jones’ being undefeated in UFC title fights is the cherry on top. He did, however, have a 2017 knockout win over former UFC double champion Daniel Cormier later ruled a no contest because Jones testing positive for a banned substance.

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4

The number of undefeated MMA runs Paul Craig ended in the UFC

When the UFC needs to test the quality of an up-and-coming prospect, there’s one man to call: Paul Craig. Craig has had his fair share of highs and lows inside the Octagon, but when the UFC books him against unbeaten opponents, that brings the best out of the Scottish fighter.

Of his seven bouts against undefeated fighters, Craig has won four, including an impressive knockout win over a future light heavyweight champion in Jamahal Hill in 2021 and a 2019 submission win over Magomed Ankalaev, who is presumed to be next in line to challenge for the 205-pound belt. Craig also gave Henrique da Silva and Kennedy Nzechukwu their first losses in 2016 and 2019, respectively.

Craig takes on the sport’s undefeated No. 1 prospect, Bo Nickal, on the main card at UFC 309. Will Nickal be the next fighter to lose his “0” to Craig?

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4 (again)

Possible retirements at UFC 309

Next Saturday’s fight card in Madison Square Garden might present fans with the end of an era in MMA. There are four fighters who appear to be in position to retire at UFC 309. In fact, the main event could be followed by the rare double retirement, as Jones and Miocic have both indicated their heavyweight title fight could be the last of their careers. Even one of Jones’ coaches has said he was treating this fight camp as their last.

“Whenever Jon’s ready [to retire], I’m right there with him,” Jones’ longtime coach Brandon Gibson said in an interview with MMA Fighting. “I’m approaching this one like it’s our last go, it’s our last rodeo.”

We could also see veterans Jim Miller, 42, and Chris Weidman, 40, leave their gloves in the Octagon next weekend. Miller, who holds the UFC records for total fights (44), wins (26) and submission attempts (48), has been in the UFC since 2008. And Weidman, a former UFC middleweight champion, has competed in the UFC since 2011. Both fighters hail from the northeast — Miller from New Jersey, Weidman from New York — and a retirement in the famed arena might make for a fitting career sunset.

In an interview with MMA Fighting after his win over Bruno Silva in March, Weidman said, “I probably would have retired if I didn’t perform out there.” And though Miller has expressed no interest in retiring soon, it’s safe to assume the end of his UFC career is near.

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735

Days since Michael Chandler’s last fight

It has been a long time since we’ve seen the former Bellator lightweight champion competing inside the Octagon. Chandler has been sidelined for two years, but not due to injury — or even personal reasons. Instead, Chandler was waiting for a big-money fight with the sport’s biggest star, Conor McGregor. After such an extended layoff, Chandler has decided to go in a different direction, bypassing the matchup with McGregor in favor of a rematch of his 2021 lightweight title fight with Oliveira.

McGregor has held up the Chandler fight on multiple occasions, most recently because of an injury that forced him to withdraw from their booked fight at UFC 303 in June. Although Chandler wasn’t the reason the bout fell through, he — and his UFC title hopes — has been most affected by it not happening.

What will Chandler look like after two years of inactivity? Has his window to claim the UFC title closed? We’ll get the answer to these questions when he takes on Oliveira on Nov. 16.

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1-1

Judges’ round scoring from Oliveira-Chandler 1

Speaking of the UFC 309 co-main event. Despite the knockout Oliveira scored early in the second round of Oliveira-Chandler 1, according to the judge’s scorecards, Chandler was in complete control in Round 1. All three judges scored the first round in favor of Chandler — two judges even scored the round 10-8 for Chandler.

That victory was the biggest win of Oliveira’s career, as it earned him the lightweight belt and was the first of three consecutive title fight wins by finish. Considering “Do Bronx” is coming off a split decision loss against Arman Tsarukyan, this might be the fight he needs to propel himself back into contention for the title.

With Oliveira and Chandler each having claimed a round over the other in the first bout, this rematch could allow Chandler to correct his mistakes. Or, Oliveira could hand Chandler another loss and again leave him in no-man’s land within the lightweight division.

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100%

Bo Nickal and Marcus McGhee‘s finish rate inside the Octagon

Nickal and McGhee are the only fighters with three or more UFC appearances to boast a perfect finish rate inside the Octagon. Both fighters are 3-0 in the UFC — Nickal has two submissions and one knockout, and McGhee has two knockouts and one submission.

Both fighters will face their toughest tests yet in MSG, as Nickal takes on submission specialist and certified unbeaten streak-ender Paul Craig and McGhee squares off with veteran men’s bantamweight Jonathan Martinez.

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8

UFC events held in Madison Square Garden

Madison Square Garden is arguably the most notable venues in all of sport. MSG has been home to many great moments in sports history. Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier 1 and 2. Both of the New York Knicks NBA championship wins. The New York Liberty‘s WNBA championship win. Oh, and we can’t forget WrestleMania 1.

There are a few marquee UFC fights that belong on that list as well: Conor McGregor becoming the UFC’s first double champion versus Eddie Alvarez, Georges St-Pierre returning from retirement to become a middleweight champion against Michael Bisping and Alex Pereira winning the middleweight title over Israel Adesanya and going 3-0 against his rival.

Soon, Jones vs. Miocic for the heavyweight title — and maybe an iconic moment — can join that list, too.