Looking to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Michigan, USC returns home to host Wisconsin on Saturday.
The Trojans somehow lost despite throwing for 283 passing yards compared to just 32 for the Wolverines.
However, USC had no answer for a Wolverines rushing attack that racked up 290 yards on 46 carries.
The Trojans could expect a similar game plan from a Badgers team that ranks 44th with a run-play rate of 55.71% and could increase that number following the loss of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who tore his ACL two weeks ago against Alabama.
The truth is, UW’s offense was already struggling to meet expectations even before Van Dyke’s injury, so why should things be any different under sophomore Braedyn Locke, who will be making just his fourth career start?
Wisconsin vs. USC odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | +15.5 (-110) | +470 | o51 (-112) |
| USC | -15.5 (-110) | -650 | u51 (-108) |
Wisconsin outlook
Evaluating Wisconsin is much more intricate than just comparing the two quarterbacks.
For example, we must also consider how the Badgers performed under Van Dyke.
In their first two games, they averaged 27.5 points while failing to cover the spread as a favorite, laying 24 and 18.5 points against Western Michigan and South Dakota at home.
Although the Badgers rank 47th with 172.5 rushing yards per game, they’re 80th with an average of 4 yards per carry.
Moreover, if we convert those numbers into Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush, Wisconsin ranks 96th with a -0.04 mark.
The scoring opportunities simply aren’t there for Wisconsin, which is tied for 94th in red-zone attempts (11) and 96th in touchdown conversion (54.55%).
Given those numbers, I’m suspicious of this offense under a second-year backup quarterback.
USC outlook
The Trojans outgained Michigan in yardage 379-322, but a Will Johnson 42-yard touchdown interception played a vital role in the Wolverines pulling off the victory.
Although USC ultimately lost the game, transitioning to the Big Ten could strengthen its title chances by forcing it to improve more defensively.
While we’re only four weeks into the season, the early returns suggest that this USC defense is already much improved compared to the previous season.
In 2023, the defense ranked 124th in Adjusted EPA/Play (+0.11), but this year, they’re up to 49th with a -0.06 value.
Despite the improvement, the Trojans and their defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, will undoubtedly want to put things right after their poor effort at stopping the run against Michigan.
On Saturday afternoon, I’d expect a much more spirited effort from the Trojans’ defense in front of their home fans at the Coliseum.
Wisconsin vs. USC pick
The Badgers’ performance in their first two games against inferior competition would suggest it was overvalued entering this season.
We can’t expect this team to suddenly take a giant leap under a backup quarterback.
While Locke does have some experience from last season, the Badgers failed to score more than 14 points in two of his three starts.
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With Wisconsin’s touchdown red-zone conversion down 15.5% from last year, there’s no question that this offense has worsened.
Given those struggles, bettors can find value in fading the Badgers team total of 17.5 points.
Best bet: Wisconsin team total under 17.5 points (-120, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
