Fresh off a big upset win over the UAB Blazers on Monday, the Vermont Catamounts travel to Auburn, Alabama, to visit Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday.
The Tigers are considered among the league’s top college basketball teams.
The surprising return of fifth-year center Johni Broome has transformed the team’s outlook.
However, the Catamounts are no joke.
John Becker is an excellent head coach who’s led Vermont to eight consecutive America East regular-season titles.
Read on for my Vermont vs Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for Nov. 6’s matchup.
Vermont vs. Auburn odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | +17 (-110) | +950 | Over 143 (-112) |
| Auburn | -17 (-110) | -1650 | Under 143 (-108) |
Vermont vs. Auburn prediction
(8 p.m. ET, SEC Network+)
Broome is among the nation’s best interior defenders, blocking 2.2 shots per game last year while deterring every shot near the painted area.
He’s the primary reason Auburn led all D-I college hoops teams in 2-point shooting allowed in 2023-24 (43%).
Broome’s monstrous interior presence allows for more aggressive perimeter defense.
The Tiger guards know that Broome will clean up their mistakes, so they pressure opposing ball-handlers and – of specific importance to this matchup – run opposing shooters off the 3-point line.
Auburn ranked top-50 nationally in 3-point rate allowed and low-quality 3s forced last season.
That bodes well in this matchup with Vermont’s perimeter-oriented five-out spread offense that consistently ranks near the nation’s top in 3-point attempts per game.
Suffice it to say I don’t expect the Catamounts to generate many open looks from deep.
Last season, Vermont’s offense was a little too one-dimensional and overly reliant on spot-up shooting, which resulted in too many prolonged draughts of stale offense.
While the Catamounts brought in Howard transfer Shy Odom from the portal to help create some more consistent interior offense and solve the one-dimensional issue, he’s currently sidelined with an ankle injury.
Therefore, I don’t expect the Catamounts to score much.
The most effective way to beat Auburn’s defense is by drawing fouls and earning second-chance points on offensive rebounds — Broome and Co. often sell out for blocks and leave the weak-side boards open.
Still, Vermont’s conservative five-out attack won’t exploit either vulnerability — the Catamounts will try to beat Auburn with shooting, and it won’t work.
However, Vermont boasts an elite defense spearheaded by Shamir Bogues at point guard and Ileri Ayo-Faleye at center.
Bogues is a swarming point-of-attack defender who should limit Auburn point guard JP Pegues in ball-screens.
Ayo-Faleye is a mobile, versatile, bouncy interior defender who can limit Broome in the post.
Of greater significance, Vermont boasts a dominant transition-denial defense.
The Catamounts’ spread offense makes it easy for guys to get back on defense before opponents begin running the open floor, and their consistently steady ball-handling limits fast-break opportunities — they ranked fourth nationally in fast-break points per game allowed last season (six).
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Auburn loves turning defense into offense by creating transition opportunities out of turnovers.
While Auburn’s aggressive perimeter defense should contest every Vermont 3-point shot, the Tigers likely won’t force many turnovers or generate many transition opportunities against the Catamounts’ steady ball-handlers and transition-denial defenders.
Vermont vs. Auburn pick
While I don’t expect Vermont to score much on Wednesday in a bad offensive matchup, I think the Catamounts can keep Auburn from running away in a solid defensive matchup.
Also, it’s worth asking if the Tigers are looking ahead to a monster non-conference opportunity against Houston on Saturday.
They could sleepwalk through half of this game.
Ultimately, I’m banking on an ugly, low-scoring 40 minutes.
Best Bet: Under 143 (-108, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
