We’re back in action in the NFL with a Week 12 slate loaded with exciting games.
n this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop picks on the Sunday slate.
I went 4-0 on my picks in this column last week, bringing my record to 25-7 for the season on these picks.
Overall, I’m 92-64 on NFL player props this season for 31.6 units of profit.
Bucky Irving longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)
The Buccaneers are in a beautiful spot to get their run game rolling this week. They’re favored by six points on the road against the Giants, who rank 27th against the run by EPA/play.
However, with Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker splitting work, getting a strong handle on projecting snap share can be challenging.
Instead, let’s bet on Bucky Irving doing what he does best — breaking off an explosive carry.
According to Fantasy Points Data, Irving ranks third out of 53 qualified running backs with 0.31 missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth with a 7.3% explosive rush rate. The Giants, meanwhile, have allowed the highest explosive rush rate (8.6%) and the fourth-most missed tackles per attempt.
Irving has cleared this line in six of eight games with nine-plus carries this season, and most projections have him around 11-12 carries this week, with the upside for much more if Tampa Bay opts to give its talented rookie runner more work coming off the bye week.
D.J. Moore longest reception Under 19.5 yards (-115, bet365)
The Bears unveiled some offensive changes under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
After Shane Waldron left much to be desired, Brown strived to make rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’s life easier.
According to Fantasy Points Data, he threw to his first read on 87.1% of his passing plays and had an average time to throw (TTT) of 2.21 seconds, much lower than his 2.7 TTT coming into the game
I’d expect that same strategy against the Vikings, who lead the NFL in blitz rate.
In that offensive structure, Moore was heavily utilized in the screen game and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 0.9 yards.
All seven of his targets came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. If Moore doesn’t see downfield targets, it will be tough to clear this number. The Vikings are elite at limiting yards after the catch, ranking fifth in the NFL with just 5.05 YAC per reception allowed.
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
After dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this season, Brian Robinson Jr. is off the injury report, and he’ll benefit from a mini-bye week after Washington played on “Thursday Night Football” last week. He should be poised for a significant workload in a perfect game environment.
Washington is an 11-point favorite over a collapsing Dallas team that ranks dead last in EPA/rush allowed this year. According to Fantasy Points Data, 55.6% of Robinson’s runs have come on man/gap scheme runs, and the Cowboys have allowed the second-highest success rate on man/gap scheme runs this year.
With Jayden Daniels still not fully healthy, the Commanders would love to get out of here without much wear and tear for their rookie quarterback, so expect a heavy dose of the traditional running back run game.
Robinson’s upside in this spot is massive.
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Josh Downs Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
We’ve seen the lines for Josh Downs drop with Anthony Richardson back in the lineup over Joe Flacco, but Richardson posted a season-high 66.7% completion rate last week. Even if that dips, he provides the big-play potential to boost Downs’ upside in the receiving game.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Downs has led the Colts with a 24.9% target share, 32% target per route run rate and 31.3% first-read share since Week 4.
He’s posted an elite 2.67 yards per route run rate, which ranks 11th in the NFL.
The Lions have a slot funnel defense, allowing the league’s highest target share and most receiving yards to the slot. Amik Robertson, Detroit’s starting slot corner, has allowed the seventh-highest target per route run rate, giving Downs the sixth-highest matchup advantage in Fantasy Points Data’s WR/CB report.
The Colts are 7.5-point underdogs in an indoor game with a total of 50.5 points. That’s a perfect game environment for Downs to thrive, and the Colts will have to go more pass-heavy against an elite Detroit run defense.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether or not numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_bets)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
