New Jersey gubernatorial hopeful Mikie Sherrill is up five points in a new poll — but that might not be great news for her.
While US Rep. Sherrill (D-NJ) nabbed a 50% to 45% lead over Republican foe Jack Ciattarelli in the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll of likely voters, the survey has a history of wildly underestimating the GOP vote.
The poll result is also a dramatic collapse from the 20-point lead she held in June.
“This garbage pollster missed by 5 in 2021 and 14 in 2024. I’m now convinced it’s really Jack +2,” political commentator Matt Rooney mused about the survey.
Sherrill’s edge is also close to the 4.7 percentage-point margin of error in the poll and follows a slew of polls showing a significantly tighter race than what had been gauged during the summer.
“As all eyes turn to New Jersey’s governor’s race as a test of the nation’s political mood, the contest has narrowed in its final weeks,” explained Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.
“Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation. This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”
Back in July, Sherrill had a 51% to 31% lead, and in August, her advantage clocked in at 44% to 35%, according to Rutgers-Eagleton surveys.
Overall, Sherrill has a 4.1-point lead in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate, which underestimated Ciattarelli’s by about 5 points during his 2021 gubernatorial bid.
The Rutgers-Eagleton poll also found that the two candidates were neck and neck on a lot of the core issues for New Jersey voters, with Sherrill narrowly besting Ciattarelli on affordability (42% to 41%), public education (47% to 40%), and health care (50% to 35%).
Here’s the latest on the NJ governor’s race
- NJ GOP voter registration numbers surge ahead of hotly contested governor’s race
- Mikie Sherrill shirks job in the House as NJ gov race tightens — skipping more than half the votes this year
- Fearing Ciattarelli upset over Sherrill, DNC pumps more money into NJ gov race — after already dropping $3M
- NJ GOP asks Trump’s DOJ to intervene as Dem-controlled county refuses security cams for ballots
- New Jersey GOP sounds alarms about ballot security in key county ahead of tight gov election
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli was favored on managing the state budget (45% to 39%) and taxes (44% to 37%).
Another key finding is that both candidates are drawing negative marks overall from voters, with Ciattarelli’s favorability at 41% positive to 47% negative, while Sherrill’s is at 42% to 45%.
The poll sampled 795 likely voters between Oct. 3 to 17 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Early voting for the Nov. 4 election begins on Saturday.
Voter registration data has shown that Republicans netted voters more than Democrats over the past year, though the Dems still retain the overall advantage.
Democrats have also returned more mail-in ballots than Republicans, though the GOP has a higher rate of return, which could bode well for enthusiasm.
