Yankees can turn rotation edge into World Series-winning formula

LOS ANGELES — The last time the Yankees and Dodgers faced each other in October, the World Series turned on the left arm of Fernando Valenzuela.

He owned 1981 from the first day of the season and would not let it get away. Valenzuela was an emergency starter on Opening Day and threw a shutout. Thus began a string of eight straight complete games to begin that year — or as many as there were in the entire major leagues through two months this season. The success and a distinctive style — looking skyward at the top of his delivery — while darting screwballs that baffled hitters gave birth to “Fernandomania.” The phenomenon would forge lifelong Dodger fans, especially those in Los Angeles who shared his Mexican roots.

But no game more defined Valenzuela, none was more remembered upon the sadness of learning of his death at 63 on Tuesday, than Game 3 of the ’81 World Series. The final start of his 20-year-old season, in which he would unprecedentedly (still) win the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young, was his fifth in 17 days that postseason. That included, on three days of rest, a must-win Game 3, since the Yankees had won the first two in The Bronx.

Valenzuela gave up two in the third inning, two more in the fourth and none thereafter. Los Angeles took the lead in the fifth. Valenzuela threw a 147-pitch complete game. The Dodgers won and never lost again.

The Yankees flew West on Wednesday — the 43rd anniversary of that dogged, defining Valenzuela performance — to face the Dodgers in the World Series for the first time since 1981, in a totally different sport. There has not been a complete game in the playoffs since Houston’s Justin Verlander in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS against the Yankees, nor in the World Series since Kansas City’s Johnny Cueto in Game 2 in 2015 against the Mets.

Valenzuela would have been removed in the third or fourth inning with the same performance today. Only two of 76 starts this postseason have exceeded 100 pitches, only one has produced an out in the eighth inning.

Yet so much of the 120th World Series — the 12th between these historic teams — is going to hinge on starting pitching. On paper, the Yankees have an edge because you can write in the names of four Yankee starters. Los Angeles had to throw two bullpen games in the NLCS and already manager Dave Roberts has revealed that at least Game 3 or 4 of the World Series will be all relievers.

An NL executive said: “I feel like the more innings the Yankees get from their starters and the more innings they force the Dodgers to use their bullpen, that is their winning formula.”

Basically, this feels like a World Series between two versions of the late 1990 Yankees offensively. Both grind at-bats, create a lot of on-base traffic and get into opposing bullpens. That became a less successful strategy in recent years as rather than middle-inning weaklings, full bullpens were filled with closer-type stuff monsters.

But even stuff monsters have breaking points. Pens are being overtaxed and overexposed. Since 2019, hitters have an .828 OPS in 476 plate appearances when seeing a reliever in the postseason for at least the third time. They have 21 homers. The 20th was Juan Soto’s off Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis to decide the AL pennant. The 21st was Will Smith’s two-run blast off the Mets’ Phil Maton to pretty much put the clinching NLCS Game 6 away for the Dodgers.

And scouts who were on the Dodgers in the playoffs say the stuff/durability within a game has been dubious for the traditional starters, notably Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty in his last start against the Mets. Maybe a week off will help revive him.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s two-hit, no-run, seven-inning dominance produced the best Baseball-Reference game score for a Dodger in 22 regular-season games ever against the Yankees. That was June 7. He made one more start before missing three months with a rotator cuff strain. In his seven starts since returning, including three in the playoffs, the righty has not exceeded 73 pitches or five innings.

This version of Walker Buehler also is no more than a five-inning pitcher, but the Dodgers can’t turn elsewhere with Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May on the IL.

The Mets can attest that the Dodgers pen is very good. Still, the Yankees have to win a battle of attrition against it by knocking out starters early to make that bullpen game even more problematic. And they have to get innings from their starters to protect their good, deep pen from being seen over and over by a powerful, long lineup.

That begins with Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole. Can he be a workhorse ace twice in this series? Can Carlos Rodon get 18 outs at least once, if not twice? Can Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt navigate the Dodgers lineup two times through and deliver 15 outs?

No one needs to throw 147 pitches on three days of rest. The man who did that will be hailed in memory throughout this World Series.

But Aaron Boone has a rotation advantage here if he can get more from his starters and, thus, possibly ask less and better from his relievers.