Control of the Senate is on the ballot today, and while Republicans have a straightforward path to flipping the upper chamber, Democrats need to pull off some upsets to maintain control.
Fifty-one senators, including four independents, are in the Democratic caucus in the Senate, compared to 49 Republicans. That breakdown will likely change as numerous Senate races are decided on Tuesday night, and possibly in the days after.
Here are 10 races to watch.
Arizona — Open Seat
After Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced earlier this year that she was retiring from the Senate, the race for her seat was blown wide open. While Sinema became an independent in 2022, she still caucuses with the Democrats, meaning her seat would be a big flip for Republicans if they can win on Tuesday.
Republican candidate Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial election in 2022, is currently trailing in the polls against Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego. Gallego enjoyed a nearly eight-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average in early October, but Lake has cut into that lead, trailing by less than 3 points as of Tuesday afternoon.
Much of the Arizona Senate race has centered on the border crisis, as Lake has hammered Gallego over his support for amnesty and his vote against House Joint Resolution 24, which sought to prevent illegal immigrants from voting in local elections in Washington, D.C.
Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democrat.
Maryland — Open Seat
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is hoping to give the GOP a Senate seat in one of the most unlikely of states as he faces off against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan was a popular governor in the blue state, winning two terms as a Republican. He has campaigned as a moderate willing to reach across the aisle, focusing on addressing economic issues and taxes.
Alsobrooks, a former county executive for Prince George County, Maryland, is pushing for pro-abortion policies and a ban on so-called assault weapons, claiming that “gun violence is the number one killer of children in America.” The Democrat leads Hogan in almost every recent poll, and Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Democrat. But if Republicans have a strong night on Tuesday, it could be evidenced by how well Hogan performs in deep-blue Maryland.
Michigan — Open Seat
Similar to Arizona, Michigan’s 2024 Senate race will decide who will replace a retiring senator — in this case, 74-year-old Democrat Debbie Stabenow. Both of Michigan’s Senate seats have been controlled by Democrats since Republican Spencer Abraham lost his re-election bid to Stabenow in 2000. The party’s nearly-25 years of controlling Michigan’s Senate seats, however, is up for grabs as Republican Mike Rogers is running in a tight race against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Slotkin was the clear favorite to win the race early on, but Rogers has cut into the Democrat’s lead in the polls. Both Slotkin and Rogers have focused heavily on the economy, with Rogers accusing Slotkin of supporting a controversial Chinese-owned electric vehicle plant being built in Big Rapids, Michigan. Slotkin, meanwhile, has attempted to tie Rogers to Big Pharma and has touted her support of abortion.
Slotkin currently leads in the RealClearPolitics average by 2.3 points, and Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
Montana — Democrat Seat
Longtime Democrat Sen. Jon Tester is in an uphill battle to keep his Senate seat, which he’s held since 2007. Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL, is challenging Tester, focusing on the border crisis that has exploded under the Biden-Harris administration.
Montana represents one of the Republican Party’s best chances to flip a seat in the Senate with Cook Political Report rating the race lean Republican. Tester winning re-election could be vital to the Democratic Party’s narrow path to keeping control of the Senate. Polling on the Montana race has shown Sheehy leading Tester by nearly 8 points on average, according to RealClearPolitics.
Nebraska — Republican Seat
Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is running for re-election against independent candidate Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran. Fischer has served in the Senate since 2013 and has won each of her elections by wide margins. But polling from this year’s race shows a much closer contest than what Fischer is used to.
Osborn reportedly asked the Democratic Party to keep a candidate off the ballot to form a coalition behind him, but then said he would not accept the Democratic Party’s endorsement following the primaries. While an Osborn upset in Nebraska wouldn’t help push the Democrats closer to a majority, it could potentially hurt the GOP’s numbers and its path to taking control of the Senate.
Fischer leads in the polls by just over 2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican.
Nevada — Democrat Seat
Nevada Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen is in a close race against Republican Sam Brown in what would be a huge pick-up for Republicans if Brown can pull off the upset. Rosen won her first term as senator in the 2018 election after serving as a congresswoman from Nevada’s 3rd District for one term.
Brown, a U.S. Army veteran who was wounded while serving in Afghanistan in 2008, a political outsider is hoping to burst onto the scene with a victory over Rosen. An upset for Brown seemed far from reach just two months ago when Rosen led in the RCP average by 10 points, but Brown has chipped away at the Democrat’s lead, now trailing by just four points. In one recent poll, Brown was tied with Rosen, and in another, he was leading by 1 point.
Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democrat.
Ohio — Democrat Seat
In what Cook Political Report is rating as another toss-up race, Democrat Sherrod Brown has been losing ground in the polls against Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown, who has been in office since 2007, has attempted to present himself as a moderate, especially on energy, vowing that he “will not turn my back on Ohio’s rural electric co-ops, Ohio energy workers, and Ohio families whose energy bills are already too high.” In September, however, participated in a campaign event alongside a radical environmentalist group pushing to close the state’s largest coal plant.
Moreno, a Colombian-born businessman, supports stronger border security and said that “energy dominance” will be one of his top issues if he is elected. Moreno has also pushed to abolish the Department of Education, arguing that it has a “stranglehold on our kids.”
Moreno leads by just 1.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
Pennsylvania — Democrat Seat
In Pennsylvania, Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is running for his fourth term against Republican businessman Dave McCormick. The battleground state Senate race is another chance for Republicans to steal a seat from the Democrats. McCormick has recently surged in the polls, saying that Pennsylvanians “can see now it’s between a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, an outsider, a business guy, someone who went to West Point and served in combat, versus a guy who’s been in elected office for 30 years and has been weak in a 99% vote for these liberal policies.”
In recent weeks, Casey has attempted to tie himself to former President Donald Trump, dropping a campaign that says “Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating.”
Casey leads McCormick by 1.8 points in the RCP average of polls, and Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
Texas — Republican Seat
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is seeking to fend off an upset bid from Democrat Rep. Colin Allred and keep the Texas Senate seat in the GOP’s hands. Allred, a former NFL linebacker, has gone along with the Biden-Harris agenda 100% of the time. During a recent debate, Cruz blasted Allred’s “radical and extreme” record, pointing out that the Democrat voted in favor of the leftist “Equality Act,” a bill that prohibited discrimination based on “sexual orientation” or “gender identity.”
For Democrats to maintain control of the Senate, they would likely have to pull off a win in Montana or a major upset over Cruz in Texas. Cook Political Report rates the Cruz-Allred race as lean Republican.
Wisconsin — Democrat Seat
The fourth and final Senate toss-up race, according to Cook Political Report, is the Wisconsin contest between incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde. Baldwin, a senator since 2013, has seen the polls grow closer in recent weeks. Hovde, like many Republicans, is focused on immigration and the economy and is hoping to ride some momentum from Trump, who has been focusing on the battleground state.
Baldwin leads Hovde by just 1.8 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
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