By Michael Schwarz September 30, 2024 at 8:04am
Many reputable pieces of data paint the same picture of the 2024 presidential election. And no data should strike us as more reputable than that derived from apparent admissions against interest.
In a clip posted to the social media platform X on Sunday, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, the party’s candidate for U.S. Senate in that crucial swing state, reported that her campaign’s internal polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris “underwater” in Michigan.
“I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan right now. We have her underwater in our polling,” a nervous-sounding Slotkin said.
🚨🚨Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin: “I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan. We have her under water in our polling.” pic.twitter.com/hmMQEZwD94
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024
Axios, which first obtained the clip, reported that Slotkin made those comments on Wednesday during a virtual fundraiser with Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey.
Readers, of course, may decide for themselves what to make of the comments.
In fact, if they so wished, pessimistic souls could find evidence to support their skepticism.
For one thing, Slotkin once worked for the CIA, State Department and Pentagon. That unholy trifecta alone should make one question the veracity of any comment she has ever made.
Do you think Trump will win Michigan?
Furthermore, Axios observed that campaigns sometimes “paint themselves as the polling underdog as a fundraising tactic.”
Perhaps they do so in private. But the public admission of poor polling is nowhere near as common as Axios suggested.
Last week, for instance, Harris’s campaign raised eyebrows with a fundraising email that highlighted poor polling results in swing states.
In this case, it seems highly probable that Slotkin wanted to light a proverbial fire under donors. So she did that by painting a bleak picture of Harris’s prospects in Michigan.
That does not mean, however, that Slotkin lied. In fact, recent evidence suggests that the congresswoman has cause for concern not only over the vice president’s chances in Michigan but also over her own.
For instance, over the weekend, AtlasIntel released a series of swing state polls.
One of those polls showed Slotkin trailing former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan by nearly six points in their race for the U.S. Senate.
On X, one liberal tried to cope by pointing out that other pollsters have Slotkin with a strong lead.
“Throw @atlas_intel in the trash,” the liberal X user wrote.
LOL.
AtlasIntel has Slotkin losing to … Mike Rogers. She’s up between 6 and 13 in virtually every poll.
Throw @atlas_intel in the trash. pic.twitter.com/t1BfLNwLP2
— Nathan George (@itsnathangeorge) September 29, 2024
Unfortunately for the coping liberal, in the 2020 election AtlasIntel ranked as the most accurate pollster.
AtlasIntel *THE MOST ACCURATE* POLLSTER in 2020 election cycle.👇 https://t.co/2myk8mpmo0 pic.twitter.com/FV8XODVOUf
— Rob🗽U.S.A. (@Alpine80s) September 24, 2024
Meanwhile, the same series of polls from AtlasIntel showed former President Donald Trump with a lead in five of the seven projected swing states.
Remarkably, the largest of those leads (+3.4 points) came from Michigan.
📊 Swing States Polling: @atlas_intel
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 51% (+2.9)
🟦 Harris: 48.1%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+1.5)
🟦 Harris: 48.2%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 50.6% (+3.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.2%GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49.6% (+0.6)
🟦 Harris: 49%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49.8% (+1.2)… pic.twitter.com/eYNGsvqlYE— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 29, 2024
Of course, a single poll, or even a set of polls, does not necessarily reflect the truth about the electorate.
After all, last week the establishment pollsters at The New York Times/Siena College gave Trump leads of five points in Arizona, four in Georgia and two in North Carolina.
It hardly seems possible that an establishment pollster would poll well to the right of AtlasIntel in the Sun Belt. But that is what happened.
Thus, we must take all individual polling results — especially state polling — with a massive grain of salt.
On the other hand, when a desperate-sounding Democratic Senate candidate tells Democrat donors that her internal polling has Harris “underwater” in Michigan, when the Harris campaign itself sends out a desperate fundraising email, and when 2020’s most accurate pollster appears to confirm the bleak situation for the vice president in Michigan, we have some cause to believe it.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
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