An anonymous French gambler, known as Théo, has profited a staggering $48 million on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket after correctly predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election with a $30 million bet. Now, the elusive “Trump Whale” has explained what he based his decision on.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the 2024 U.S. presidential election has not only seen the historic return of Donald Trump to the White House but also the emergence of a French betting “whale” who has turned his bold predictions into a massive windfall. The mysterious trader, identified only as Théo, placed a total of $30 million in wagers across four separate accounts on polymarket, billed as “the world’s largest prediction market,” betting on Trump to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
As the election results rolled in, confirming Trump’s defeat of incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, Théo’s risky bets paid off handsomely. The Theo4 Polymarket account alone secured approximately $22 million in profits, while the trader’s three other accounts – Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, and Michie – collectively gained an additional $26 million. This brings Théo’s total earnings to an astonishing $48 million, catapulting him to the top of Polymarket’s all-time winnings board.
Polymarket, a relatively new crypto-based betting platform, has seen a surge in popularity during this election cycle. Bettors on the platform spent more than $3.7 billion placing wagers on the presidential race, with Théo’s substantial investments accounting for a significant portion of the total. The platform has positioned itself as a more accurate predictor of election outcomes compared to traditional polls and media outlets.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Théo’s bets were not a matter of luck. Instead, he carefully studied polls and believed most election polls to be inaccurate due to a reluctance amongst some voters to admit that they support Trump. He turned to other types of polls to find the answer.
The WSJ writes:
To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.
Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.
As for Théo, the French “whale” maintains that his substantial wagers were purely motivated by financial gain rather than any political agenda. In a Zoom call with the Journal, he stated, “My intent is just making money.” He reiterated this stance in a follow-up email, writing, “I have absolutely no political agenda.”
Read more at the Wall Street Journal here.
Lucas Nolan is a reporter for Breitbart News covering issues of free speech and online censorship.
