With each passing day, the reality of the situation in the war in Ukraine – that Russian forces have the upper hand – becomes more and more inescapable.
It has come to the point where even some of the most ardent Kiev defenders are now vocal in calling for President Volodymyr Zelensky and his regime to accept it.
For President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic, a former senior NATO general who has been one of Ukraine’s most robust backers in its war with Russia, it is time for Ukrainians and their supporters to ‘be realistic’ about how unlikely are its prospects of recovering territory conquered by Russia.
On the one hand, the Czech presidency is ‘a largely ceremonial post’. But Pavel is a relevant voice aligned with those of the country’s center-right government under Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
Mr. Pavel also has considerable influence on security issues, being a former chief of the Czech military’s general staff and past chairman of NATO’s military committee.
New York Times reported:
“’The most probable outcome of the war’, he said, ‘will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily’. But, he added, that ‘temporary thing’, could last years.”
Maximalist goals are out of reach for either Russia or Ukraine, he says. That means Kiev can’t recover its territory under Russian control.
“’To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen’, Mr. Pavel said in his office at Prague Castle this past week, ‘So the end will be somewhere in between’.”
While Zelensky rules out direct talks with Russia and insist on demanding that Russia leave all ‘Ukrainian territory’, opinion polls show a three-fold increase in the share of Ukrainians ready to accept territorial concessions, going from 8 to 32 percent.
“The Czech Republic, along with Poland and the Baltic States, has been a particularly stalwart supporter of Ukraine but has faced growing public pressure to curb its aid and to push Ukraine toward a deal with Russia. Nearly two-thirds of Czechs, according to an opinion poll conducted this summer, would support a quick end to the war in Ukraine even at the cost of some territory remaining under Russian control.”
For their part, 54 percent of Czechs oppose sending weapons to Ukraine.
Pavel dismisses as ‘nonsense’ the position of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán that Ukraine should swiftly sue for peace and stop draining European resources better spent on the continent’s domestic needs.
While maintaining that, Pavel also states that Ukrainians need to be ‘realistic about the support that they can achieve’ from EU governments that are under pressure to scale back military aid.
“’The issue is linked to populism’, Mr. Pavel said, ‘It’s easy to say, ’Let’s stop providing Ukraine with weapons and ammunition and then the peace will come on its own’. […] As someone with some experience with defense and security, and with knowledge of Russia, I know that peace will not come from a declaration by Ukraine that it will stop fighting’. Russia, he said, ‘will not stop its military activities’.”
[…] ‘Constantly repeating [like Orbán] that everybody else wants war, but I want peace — that would make me look much better than all the others’, Mr. Pavel said, ‘Unfortunately, most people do not realize that such a proposal is unrealistic’.”
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