Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Sunday. (Angela Weiss – AFP / Getty Images)
By Michael Schwarz October 28, 2024 at 9:54am
Polls like this, coupled with candidates’ behavior, make one question conventional wisdom regarding the competitiveness of the 2024 presidential election.
On Sunday, in what the New Hampshire Journal called a “poll shocker,” a new NH Journal/Praecones Analytica poll showed former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the Granite State.
For comparison’s sake, the certified results of the 2020 presidential election had President Joe Biden comfortably winning New Hampshire. Four years ago, Biden prevailed in that state by more than seven percentage points (52.7-45.4).
In fact, no Republican has won the state since former President George W. Bush in the 2000 election.
Nonetheless, the new poll gave Trump an advantage of less than half a percentage point (50.2-49.8).
“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” Trump national campaign spokewoman Karoline Leavitt said.
Whether or not Trump ultimately prevails in the Granite State, the new poll has tremendous significance.
In short, it constitutes the latest sign that the former president could expand the electoral map beyond anticipated swing states.
For instance, according to the latest RealClearPolling average of polls, Harris almost certainly will win New York state. Her polling margin, however, appears to have settled somewhere in the mid-teens. By contrast, Biden won the state by more than 23 points in 2020.
Do you think Trump will win New Hampshire?
What matters, therefore, is the undeniable shift of seven-to-eight points in Trump’s direction. That shift, in fact, probably helps explain why Trump held a mega-rally on Sunday at New York City’s iconic Madison Square Garden.
Likewise, a recent Quantus Insights poll showed Harris clinging to a one-point lead in Virginia.
🚨 NEW 2024 Virginia GENERAL ELECTION POLL: QUANTUS INSIGHTS 🚨
🔵 Harris: 49%
🔴 Trump: 48%
🟡 Other: 3%725 LV | Oct 22-24 | MoE 3.6%
Sponsored by: Trending Politics NewsCross tabs and full report at 2pm CST. pic.twitter.com/5jsSo8doUT
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 25, 2024
In 2020, Biden won the Old Dominion by more than ten points.
Small wonder, therefore, in light of polling trends, that Trump has scheduled a rally in Salem, Virginia, on Nov. 2.
NEW: Trump announces time and venue of his VIRGINIA rally
🔴 Saturday, Nov. 2 – just 3 days before election day
🔴 Salem Civic Center“Virginians are ready to send a powerful message by voting to send President Donald J. Trump back to the White House.” pic.twitter.com/1YaK3vv7QC
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024
Meanwhile, the former president has also scheduled a rally for Thursday in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
IT’S OFFICIAL!
President Trump is coming to New Mexico!!!When:
Thu, October 31, 2024
12:00 pm (US/Mountain)
Doors Open: 08:00 amWhere:
Albuquerque—TBDMake New Mexico Great Again!🇺🇸
Register your tickets here:https://t.co/Vc5yAtqM12 #nmpol pic.twitter.com/Nv605KJIA5
— Republican Party of New Mexico (@NewMexicoGOP) October 27, 2024
The latest RealClearPolling average of polls in New Mexico shows Harris holding nearly an eight-point lead in a state that Biden won by nearly 11 points in 2020.
Trump, however, began enjoying increased support among Hispanic and Latino voters long before Harris entered the race. And that trend has continued.
According to Pew Research, Latino voters comprise 45 percent of New Mexico’s electorate. That ranks first in the nation by a wide margin.
Thus, the former president clearly thinks it worthwhile to visit the state days before the election.
In short, one cannot understand the significance of the New Hampshire poll outside of this broader context. A seven-point Biden victory in the Granite State four years ago has turned into an apparent toss-up.
One might dismiss that lone poll result as an outlier were it not for similar results elsewhere. Deep-blue states like New York, Virginia and New Mexico appear to have shifted three-to-nine points in Trump’s direction.
With New Hampshire seemingly conforming to the same pattern, does anyone really believe that the anticipated swing states remain close? In other words, if blue states shift so far to the right that they emerge as battlegrounds, why would a similar rightward shift not materialize in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
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