With less than a year before the 2026 midterm elections, the already precarious balance of power in Congress will come down to a few, critical battleground races.
In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, Democrats would need to gain four seats to take control of the chamber while the GOP — who can count on Vice President Vance to break a tie — could stand to lose no more than three.
In the traditionally more volatile House of Representatives, Democrats have a clear shot at gaining the majority, experts said. They have now seized a lead of 4 percentage points in polling on voters’ “generic” party preference for 2026, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
“Everything we’re seeing in the off-year election is consistent with a historical pattern that benefits the out party,” House redistricting guru David Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, told The Post. “The president’s approval rating, the enthusiasm gap that we see between the parties — these are all factors in the Democrats’ favor.”
Retaking the House, where Republicans are gripping tight to their 220-213 majority, would give Democrats the ability to push their own tax and spending measures — and investigate or otherwise harass President Trump. The GOP got a tad more breathing room Dec. 2, after Republican Matt Van Epps held back a challenge by Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in a special election.
A dozen Republican-held seats are now positioned in the “toss-up” category — and each party holds a sizable war chest. The Democratic campaign arm had $47 million at the end of October, compared to $46 million for the Republicans.
“There’s really not that many competitive seats,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told The Post. “A lot of the focus is on a handful of races. The money pouring into it is insane.”
“It’s a tough situation for Republicans, because Democrats don’t need to have an amazing night to take the House because the margin is so narrow,” said Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report.
Here are some of the top battlegrounds that will determine control:
US SENATE:
Maine
Democrats have been itching to take down Sen. Susan Collins (R) for years. But the powerful Senate Appropriations chair is a survivor. They gushed about Graham Platner, a former Army and Marine Corps vet and oyster farmer, until his Nazi-linked tattoo came to light this fall. (Platner said he was unaware of the symbolism and had it covered up). Gov. Janet Mills (D), 77, is Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) preferred candidate.
North Carolina
Democrats got their contender in former Gov. Roy Cooper in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). He currently leads former Trump-picked RNC chair Michael Whatley in an early Emerson poll, after Lara Trump stayed out of the race.
Michigan
Two Democrats — Rep. Haley Stevens, 42, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, 39 — are competing to see who will take on former former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Rogers, 62, previously served as the chair of the House Intelligence Committee but narrowly lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, by fewer than 20,000 votes, in 2024 while running for the Senate alongside Trump.
Georgia
Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for re-election as the Senate’s best funded — and most vulnerable — Democrat. He could benefit from a divided primary in a Republican-leaning state. Competing to take him on are Rep. Mike Collins (R), Rep. Buddy Carter (R), and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley.
Texas
Democrats have eyed Senate races in the Lone Star State for years, usually suffering disappointment. Sen. John Cornyn (R), 73, is seeking reelection. State AG Ken Paxton (R) leads him in a recent co/efficient poll, but carries more baggage while facing a divorce from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, who cited “biblical grounds.” Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) decision to run makes a runoff almost certain.
New Hampshire
Former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost in 2008 to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). He says he wants to “lower the temperature” in DC, but Rep. Chris Pappas (D) will try to turn up the heat on any Republican who might help President Trump. Also seeking the seat is former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who lost his seat to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in 2012.
US HOUSE
Iowa 1st District
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) holds one of two or three vulnerable Iowa seats in her state. University of Iowa law professor Christina Bohannan, a Democrat, came about 800 votes short against Miller-Meeks two years ago. Miller-Meeks won her first term back in 2020 against Rita Hart by just 6 votes. The rematch against top recruit Bohannan — without Trump on the ballot — makes it one of the country’s top tossup races.
Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District
Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) is running neck-and-neck with Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in this suburban Philadelphia district, one of the nation’s most hotly contested. It is high on the Democrats’ target list. Kamala Harris won the district last year, but Fitzpatrick has found ways to hit 50% of the vote in past elections. He voted against Trump’s budget bill in July.
New York 17th Congressional District
Rep. Mike Lawler (D) has found ways to win in the past, but faces headwinds from Trump and the political environment in a district carried by Harris in the presidential race. “It’s one of the races that could make or break the majority. I see Lawler as highly vulnerable, even though he won convincingly against [former Democratic Rep.] Mondaire Jones last time,” said Wasserman. Lawler told The Post the race could end up costing a combined $60 million. “My seat obviously is critical towards keeping the majority. The Democrats obviously have put a big target on me … I know I’ll have the strong support of the Party and the outside groups,” he said.
New York 4th Congressional District
First-term Rep. Laura Gillen (D) is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in the country in her bid to maintain her Long Island district, and her vulnerability shows in some of her recent votes. Gillen, who knocked off Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, voted to stiffen prison sentences for migrants who repeatedly enter the country illegally. She also joined Republicans to back a resolution disapproving of fellow Democrat Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.) for trying to install a successor in his seat without a primary, carving out one of the most conservative Democratic voting records in Congress. Republicans are still settling on a nominee, but this month the GOP’s campaign arm hammered Gillen for taking credit for nearly $1 million for firefighters in her district despite voting against a bill to reopen the government during the shutdown.
