Democrats are rolling the dice in long shot races as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) grows desperate to keep his slim majority.
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is launching “a new multi-million dollar investment” in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and in Florida, where former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL).
In a cycle where the map overwhelmingly advantages Republicans and numerous Democrat incumbents are scrambling to keep their seats, Cruz and Scott are seen as the only Republican incumbents running relatively competitive races.
In the high stakes game of Senate campaign spending allotment, nothing happens in a vacuum. Democrats’ new gambles come as Donald Trump’s performance at the top of the ticket and strong Republican candidates have rendered Schumer’s 51-49 majority more endangered than ever.
Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), who caucuses with Democrats despite declaring himself an independent this year, is retiring, and his seat in ruby red West Virginia is certain to switch to the Republican column.
But in other states where Schumer held out hope, the red tides are turning.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) career-defying electoral odds in the red state appear to be heading towards an end. Tester is losing by seven points to Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, 50 to 43 percent, in a recent RMG research poll.
Just over five weeks ago, Tester led by five points in that same poll. That’s a 12-point swing towards Sheehy since August 14.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), campaigning for a fourth term, has held onto power as Ohio has transitioned into a solidly Republican state. But Republican challenger Bernie Moreno likely has the advantage.
And in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where Vice President Kamala Harris’s support appears to have reached a hard ceiling, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is running into trouble against big spending Republican challenger Dave McCormick.
If a Republican wins just one of those three, Schumer’s majority disappears. Schumer likely will continue spending money in those races while hoping in several additional states Democrat incumbents can hold off strong Republican challengers.
But with Schumer’s outlook for keeping the majority looking dismal, he appears to be praying to roll sevens by jumping onto offense into Texas and Florida.
Republicans are skeptical the strategy will work – and rejoicing that Schumer’s strategy demonstrates his pessimism in other races.
“If national Democrats decide to spend in Florida, Rick Scott will spend more,” a person close to Scott told Politico. “Chuck Schumer has been through this before. If he wants to sacrifice Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown on a doomed Florida strategy, he’s welcome to try.”
Cruz has faced mammoth spending from a Democrat challenger before. In 2018, he crushed Democrats’ hope after they’d turned Beto O’Rourke’s unsuccessful effort into the most expensive Senate race in history at that time.
The Texas Senator told Breitbart News Daily recently that his race is Schumer’s number one target.
“Schumer and George Soros are spending over $100 million trying to beat me in this Senate race… Right now, they are flooding the state with cash,” the senator said.
There are signs underneath the Capitol dome that Schumer sees his time as Majority Leader coming to an end.
Schumer and the White House went all in on pursuing a three-month spending bill, which would enable Schumer and Biden to use the lame duck period to force through one more giant spending package, locking in Democrat spending levels and policy priorities before a hypothetical Trump administration would begin and Republican majorities were seated.
Speaker Mike Johnson fought the three-month spending bill before turning into its biggest cheerleader. The package passed the House and Senate Wednesday.
Bradley Jaye is a Capitol Hill Correspondent for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter at @BradleyAJaye.
