American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, gave his final verdict Thursday about the 2024 race.
In a video posted by the New York Times, Lichtman forecast that Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5 and keep the White House in Democratic hands.
Lichtman has become a renowned — and controversial — figure every four years by deploying his so-called “Keys to the White House,” 13 categories to assess each major party candidate’s prospects.
According to the prof, Harris has the advantage in eight “keys” while Trump has three, though Lichtman stressed in Thursday’s video that “the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman claims to have correctly predicted the results of every presidential election since 1984 — though his assertion relies on some logical gymnastics.
In 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win the presidency. Though Gore won the popular vote, he lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush.
Nearly two decades later, Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win the election over Democrat Hillary Clinton, even though the Republican nominee lost the popular vote.
Several critics, including the Postrider’s Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito, have disputed Lichtman’s claim to fame, pointing out that his streak ended in either 2000 or 2016, depending on whether one believes the “Keys” predict the popular vote or Electoral College.
The 13 “Keys” include:
- Whether the sitting president’s party gained seats in the House during the midterms (Trump)
- Whether the incumbent is running for re-election (Trump)
- Whether the party in the White House is facing a primary (Harris)
- Whether there’s a third-party contestant (Harris)
- The state of the short-term economy (Harris)
- The state of the long-term economy (Harris)
- Whether the sitting president’s party has made adjustments to national policy (Harris)
- Whether there’s social unrest (Harris)
- Whether the president faced major scandals (Harris)
- The charisma of the challenger (Harris)
- The charisma of the incumbent (Trump)
- Whether there were any major fiascos in foreign policy (N/A)
- Whether the sitting president had successes in foreign affairs (N/A)
Lichtman, 77, dubiously argued that President Biden had not weathered a major scandal during his administration because consternation about his age and scandal-scarred son Hunter didn’t broach partisan lines in a significant way.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman also explained in the Times video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Lichtman, a registered Democrat, had cautioned the party against booting Biden from the top of the ticket following his disastrous June 27 debate with Trump, citing the power of the incumbency on his vaunted 13 keys and warning it could be a “tragic mistake.”
The issue with @NateSilver538 is he’s a compiler of polls, a clerk. He has no fundamental basis in history and elections. If we bounced presidents based on perceived physical ailments we would have bounced FDR, Reagan, and JFK. https://t.co/ZBqPahDJuF
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 20, 2024
Harris has a 2.4 percentage-point advantage over Trump nationally in multi-candidate polls, per the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate, while Nate Silver’s most recent forecast gives Trump a 58.2% chance of victory in the Electoral College.
Trump and Harris are slated to square off in Philadelphia for a debate hosted by ABC News on Sept. 10.
Despite all the volatility and turbulence of the 2024 cycle, Lichtman was emphatic about his call, saying “the keys absolutely will work — they are the constant northern star of political prediction.”
