The FBI has quietly edited the crime statistics for 2022 after initially stating in September of 2023 that crime — particularly violent crime — was down 2.1% overall.
In the months since that number was first released, Democrats and media talking heads have wielded it like a sledgehammer to crush Republican claims that crime is on the rise — but the “stealth edit,” which was somehow not mentioned in a September 2024 press release from the Bureau, undercuts their argument.
Real Clear Politics co-founder and President Tom Bevan shared an analysis of the revision, saying in an X post, “Guess what? Crime isn’t down 2.1%, according to the FBI. They just released a ‘stealth-edit’ update: violent crime is actually up 4.5%.”
Guess what? Crime isn’t down 2.1%, according to the FBI. They just released a “stealth-edit” update: violent crime is actually up 4.5%.https://t.co/hLRWthHKC0
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 16, 2024
Real Clear Investigations (RCI) dug into the issue after seeing a seemingly innocuous statement on the FBI’s website, which read, “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.”
As RCI noted, there was no indication that the updates included an upward revision of the violent crime data — and the only way that anyone would ever see the change would be to download the current numbers and compare them side by side with the report released in 2023.
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According to RCI’s analysis of just such a comparison, overall crime was up 4.5% rather than down 2.1%, as the Bureau had initially reported. That increase translated to 80,029 more violent crimes — 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults — than were reported in 2021.
To complicate matters even further, it appears that similar revisions did not occur in previous years.
Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary, told RCI, “I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022. There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”
The revision vindicates Republicans, who have long been claiming that the data was incorrect and that crime was rising — and backs up former President Donald Trump, who was erroneously “fact-checked” on the issue by ABC News debate moderator David Muir.
WATCH:
Three weeks before an election — and after the debates — FBI revises their crime statistics — showing crime increased by 4.5% in 2022 instead of dropping 2.1%.
Here is ABC’s David Muir “fact checking” Trump in front of millions of viewers with lies that will never be retracted. pic.twitter.com/3N88pjn4g4
— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) October 16, 2024
