Polls show former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia, but a surge in new voter registrations and newly naturalized citizens could tilt the results in the Democratic nominee’s favor.
At least 120,000 new voters have registered in the Peach State between July 21 (when President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race) and Sept. 8, according to data released by voter analysis firm L2 Data on Thursday.
The majority of new registrants (56%) were under the age of 34, and slightly more than half (53%) were voters of color – both are demographics that soundly support Harris over Trump.
Georgia, which went for Biden over Trump in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes, also has a staggering number of immigrants expected to be eligible for citizenship in 2024.
The American Immigration Council, a national nonprofit, found earlier this year that some 158,000 noncitizens in Georgia would be eligible for naturalization in 2024 – and will likely be highly motivated to cast ballots in November.
“The naturalization process is kind of an arduous process that takes a lot of persistence,” Steve Hubbard, a senior data scientist with AIC, told WABE in February.
“There’s lots of forms, an interview you have to complete, citizenship tests. We find that they are often very proud of that work and want to participate in the United States and its system of government,” he added.
“If you’re in a state where the election is very close between the two presidential candidates, that could tip easily,” Hubbard said of the expected impact the influx of new citizens will have on the 2024 race.
Georgia’s naturalization rate is 78.7%, higher than the national average, according to Hubbard.
AIC did not analyze if immigrants tend to vote for one party over the other.
The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Trump leading Harris in Georgia by 1.5 percentage points.
The battleground state has 16 Electoral College votes up for grabs in November.
Harris, 59, and Trump, 78, both traveled to the state earlier this week to survey the damage caused by Hurricane Helene and meet with first responders and local officials.
