A presidential historian and professor who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 US elections said an “October surprise” wouldn’t affect his prediction that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 race.
American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman predicted in early September that the Democratic nominee would take home the win next month against her Republican challenger, ex-President Donald Trump.
Lichtman on Saturday remained steadfast in his forecast — even if a last-minute scandal involving either candidate were to break this month, less than 30 days before Election Day on Nov. 5.
“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” the renowned historian told CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”
The “keys” of which Lichtman, 77, spoke are 13 categories he uses to assess the likelihood of each candidate’s ability to win the White House.
In September, he said Harris has the advantage in eight of the 13 keys while Trump has three.
And the professor’s remark that the “October surprise” is a myth does have some historical basis.
One of the more recent and notorious “October surprises” came one month before the 2016 election when an “Access Hollywood” tape was leaked to the Washington Post that showed Trump making disturbing and shocking remarks about his treatment of women.
“I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything … Grab ’em by the p—y. You can do anything,” Trump told TV host Billy Bush about women he wanted to seduce in the 2005 clip.
Trump still won the election, as Lichtman correctly predicted with his keys system.
The scholar, who is a registered Democrat, claims to have correctly predicted the winner of every US presidential race since 1984 — though not without some caveats pointed out by critics.
For instance, he claimed to have predicted the winner of the 2000 election when he forecast Al Gore would win, since the Democrat won the popular vote even if he didn’t make it to the White House, since George W. Bush won the Electoral College.
Yet he scrapped that logic 16 years later, when he said Trump would win as the Republican lost the popular vote even though he became president.
Lichtman said he’s never changed a prediction in 40 years and he’s not with his forecasting of a Harris win.
Still, the election forecaster encouraged Americans to head to the polls next month.
“The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he previously said.
The vice president has a 2 percentage-point lead over Trump in multi-candidate polls, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.
