Vice President Kamala Harris has lost steam and her edge against former President Donald Trump has slipped in three major polls with less than a month to go until Election Day — yet another blow to Democrats who were already starting to panic about November.
Harris has lost six percentage points on Trump in a single month in the NBC News poll, giving the former president the slimmest lead of 47% to 46% among registered voters — with third-party contenders included.
Last month, Harris scored 47% to Trump’s 41% in the same poll.
A separate survey from ABC News/Ipsos also showed voters moving in Trump’s direction nationally, with Harris still up among likely voters 50% to 48%.
But that’s a significant tightening from the 6-point edge Harris had scored in the poll last month among likely voters (52% to 46%).
Lastly, a CBS News/YouGov poll found Harris ahead of Trump nationally by 51% to 48% and up in the battleground state average of 50% to 49% among likely voters.
That poll had Trump gaining just one percentage in the national matchup from where he was in the September poll which had Harris up 52% to 48%. The battleground state average is identical.
With the fresh batch of polling, Harris’ lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of recent multi-candidate national polling has also slipped and now sits at 1.4 percentage points, down from 2.2 points on Saturday.
Trump is also up in the RCP no-tossup map of swing state contests.
Taken together, this is bad news for Harris. Most experts think she needs a five to six-point national polling advantage to win — a nod to past elections showing that Trump supporters tend not to respond to polls and that Republicans have an inherent advantage in the electoral college.
Even before these surveys, frustrated Democrats were sharing internal polling that showed Harris losing in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan — states that will help determine the outcome of the November election.
And many GOP insiders have been all but ready to declare victory.
“There are lots of Republicans — I say lots — a not insignificant number of Republicans, who say the race is effectively over,” longtime political journalist Mark Halperin said last week on 2WAY’s “Morning Meeting” program.
He later said “there are a lot of really worried Democrats and there are really no worried Republicans, including at Mar-a-Lago.”
Underpinning the apparent shift in the poll appears to be Harris’ favorability slipping, according to the NBC News survey — with the vice president clocking in at 43% positive to 49% negative, falling particularly among younger and independent voters.
On issues, the NBC poll mirrored a myriad of prior polling showing Trump ahead with respect to the economy (46% to 38%), inflation (44% to 37%), immigration (46% to 36%) and dealing with the conflict in the Middle East (42% to 34%).
Harris got the lead on abortion (47% to 32%), looking out for the middle class (42% to 32%) and safeguarding democracy (44% to 38%).
