Vice President Kamala Harris’ first major campaign decision — selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate — backfired big-time with Jewish voters, an exit poll exclusively obtained by The Post reveals.
The Harris-Walz ticket won Pennsylvania Jewish voters by seven percentage points, 48%-41%, over the GOP ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance, according to the survey conducted by the Honan Strategy Group for the Teach Coalition, an affiliate of the Jewish Orthodox Union.
However, 53% of Jewish voters said they would have pulled the lever for the veep if Shapiro was her No. 2, while support for Trump-Vance would have dropped to 38%.
The results suggest that Harris may have come closer or even won in Pennsylvania — which she lost to Trump by 2.1% — or other swing states had she picked the popular Shapiro, who Jewish community leaders claimed at the time was subject to an “ugly, antisemitic campaign” that led to him being passed over for the VP slot.
As it was, defeated Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey ran ahead of Harris-Walz among Jewish voters, according to the survey, with 50% saying they backed the three-term incumbent and 40% supporting Republican Sen.-elect David McCormick.
Harris also failed to break 50% among Jewish voters across New York’s 1st and 4th Congressional Districts on Long Island, as well as the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Districts in the Hudson Valley and upstate — a stunning reversal among what was considered a reliable Democratic constituency.
Across the six districts, both Trump and Republican House candidates received 41% of the Jewish vote while Harris-Walz received 48% — more than half the gap that showed up in a summer poll in which Harris led Trump 56%-37% among Jews in the swing districts.
Had Shapiro been on the ticket, however, Harris would have beaten Trump by 12 — 51%-39% — in the six battlegrounds, the poll indicated.
“In a post Oct. 7 world, the Jewish community’s vote is up for grabs more than ever before,” said Maury Litwack, founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition.
“It’s absolutely an erosion of Jewish voters for the Democratic Party,” he added. “What’s driving this is the Jewish community’s feelings about antisemitism.
“The far-left has made anti-Israel activity a cornerstone. They have sway in the Democratic Party,” explained Litwack. “This is a wake-up call for the Democratic Party in New York.”
The Jewish vote was unevenly distributed in the Empire State.
In the lower Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District, 55% of Jews said they voted to re-elect freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, while just 31% went for Democrat Mondaire Jones.
In the next-door 18th District, however, 57% of Jewish voters backed Democratic incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan, while only 34% went for Republican challenger Alison Esposito.
About half of New York Jewish voters and 43% of Pennsylvania Jewish voters said the rise in antisemitism had a “significant impact” on their vote, while more than 80% across both states said it was important for them to remain politically active and engaged in local, municipal and state races over the next two years.
The Honan Group/Teach Coalition survey conducted 681 exit poll interviews on Election Day. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.75 percentage points.
