Brand-new polling out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows Kamala Harris’ blue wall seems to be collapsing.
If former President Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona — which I think he will — Harris needs to hold all three of the blue wall states to win in 2024.
In recent years, those three states have been crucial. When Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, she thought that she had the blue wall locked up. But that was not the case because she had a real problem with blue-collar white men. That problem for the Democrats still exists.
In the last five Pennsylvania polls, Donald Trump is tied in two and ahead in three. Fox News has Donald Trump tied at 49%. Atlas Intel has Trump plus three. Trafalgar has Trump plus three. Emerson has a tie. Insider Advantage has Trump plus two.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, the race has gotten a lot closer over the course of the last few weeks. The last three polls show: Atlas Intel: Trump plus two; New York Times/Siena: Harris plus two; Trafalgar: Trump plus one. In addition, Cook Political Report reported on Tuesday:
Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.
In Michigan, a lot of news about internal polling from Michigan reveal Harris is having serious problems. In the last four polls, Atlas Intel has Trump up plus four; New York Times/Siena has Harris plus one; Trafalgar has Trump up plus two and MIRS/MI News Source has Trump plus one.
In other words, these are very close states, but Trump seems to be picking up some momentum.
Not only that, the union men who are very prevalent in these three states are turning against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. A Teamsters Union poll showed Joe Biden beating Donald Trump among Teamsters union members. As soon as Kamala Harris got in, it flipped and suddenly Trump was winning those union members 60 to 40.
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That leads to my theory that there is a very large and very quiet male pro-Trump vote. That men, particularly blue-collar white men, look at Kamala Harris and see someone who disdains traditional masculinity. The attempts to turn Doug Emhoff into an icon of the new masculinity or Tim Walz, the weirdo, into some sort of icon, what it’s like to be a “true man” in America in 2024, is not just missing its desired impact, it is exacerbating male feelings that the Democratic ticket is no longer interested in them.
Those men may have a bunch of cross-cutting concerns, including concerns about what Kamala Harris is going to do on the economy, concerns about the attack on traditional masculinity, concerns that Kamala Harris does not have them in her heart. There is a lot of good evidence to that effect, which is why Kamala Harris right now has some serious problems in these blue wall states.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday:
Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial ‘blue-wall’ states—particularly in Michigan. … Recent polling shows Harris and Trump essentially tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. … Donald Trump has assiduously courted union members and noncollege-educated white voters with a message focused on high costs, manufacturing, and the threat of China to the U.S. economy.
There is a culture war that has been going on in this country that is clearly evident. It can be summed up by noting that in recent weeks, Donald Trump has been holding rallies in the blue wall states and appearing on conservative podcasts like mine or appearing on Fox News. Meanwhile, Harris has been jet-setting to every single Left-wing cultural glitterati elite show she can find.
There is a vast culture gap between the kinds of people that Donald Trump is appealing to and the kinds of people that Kamala Harris is appealing to. And when you add the fact that she seems to be a self-glorifying, absolutely empty suit, that is not a good look.
Kamala Harris is out of touch. She’s an elite West Coast Left-winger from San Francisco and then Montreal and then back to California, where she lived in coastal enclaves, living the high life and drinking chardonnay at 2:00 p.m. until she was made vice president of the United States.
That appears to be the image that she is cultivating, and I’m not sure why she thinks that is good for her. I assume that she believes that if she runs up the vote with suburban white women by talking about abortion on a podcast that only women listen to, it will magically spur her to victory.
But here’s the problem.
She’s mining where she already has the gold. There’s nothing else to be found there.
If the people she needs to win over are white blue-collar men, she isn’t going to do that by going on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast.
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