There’s a brand new poll out and Democrats are freaking out.
Freaking out.
The brand-new New York Times/Siena College poll has a huge sample size. It shows Donald Trump with a one-point lead over Kamala Harris nationally, 48-47.
This is a disaster area poll for Kamala Harris. I’ve been saying for a long time that she had hit her high watermark, that there was only receding to the mean from there, that she had had weeks and weeks and weeks of no serious questions asked of her, and eventually the vibes would run out.
But then I considered that I might have been wrong; perhaps she could just run on fumes all the way through the election.
It turns out the American people really do want Kamala to explicate who she is and what she believes in order for them to make her president of the United States.
The poll shows Trump up 48-47 among likely voters. If you are looking at all registered voters — which may be more accurate because it’s hard to tell who is a likely voter and who is a not likely voter in the Trump-Harris election, because Trump brings in a lot of low-propensity voters — Trump is up two points, 46-44.
Those are terrible numbers for Kamala Harris, disastrous numbers. When you look at the crosstabs, it gets even worse for Kamala Harris.
If you look at the favorability ratings for Donald Trump, 46% of Americans have a very favorable or somewhat favorable rating of President Trump, But if you look at Kamala Harris, her very or somewhat favorable rating rests at 45%, lower than that of President Trump.
Asked if they still needed to learn more about Donald Trump, 87% of the voters said they already knew what they needed to know about him.
But only 67% said they already knew what they needed to know about Kamala Harris. Wait until the remaining one-third of the American population hears about Kamala Harris, how radical she is, how empty she is.
Wait until all of the airwaves are hit with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads saying all of that, that she’s shallow, that she is radical, that she is empty, that she vacillates on her positions, that she is Machiavellian, that she’s dishonest.
Wait until they hear all of that again. The debate tomorrow night is going to be nearly everything, not as much for Trump, but for Kamala Harris because a whopping 31% say they need to know more about her policies and plans.
That’s a problem for her because she’s trying to avoid talking about all of that.
In addition, 56% of voters said they believed Kamala Harris doesn’t represent change; she represents more of the same. And that’s in an era in which Americans don’t like what they are seeing.
Meanwhile, 61% said they felt Trump meant a change.
If this is a change election. Donald Trump is ahead.
As far as the number one issue, if he had to just pick one, 21% say the economy, 14% say abortion. And Trump leads Harris on the economy.
He trails on abortion, although he has taken some of those points off the table by taking a very milquetoast position on abortion. He’s not going to get involved at the national level; he has signaled he doesn’t like heartbeat bills, even at the state level.
The number three issue was immigration. The number four issue was inflation and cost of living. So three of the top four issues trend toward President Trump.
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Asked which candidate they thought would do a better job of handling the issues they thought most important, 50% said Trump. Only 43% said Harris. Trump leads by 16% on the economy. He leads by 11% on immigration.
That is before people know Kamala Harris’s actual immigration position. She’s been portraying herself as a border hawk, and she’s still losing by 11 on the issue and 16 on the economy. She leads on abortion by 17 points. She leads on democracy, however, by only six points. And right now, 51% of Americans say the economy is poor. 28% say only fair.
This New York Times Siena poll is a disaster for Democrats and a disaster for Kamala Harris. The vibes have run out; the joy has run out.
Donald Trump is the moderate candidate in this election. He has run there on abortion. He has run there on economics. He has run there on security.
Kamala Harris and Biden have raced to the Left on everything, including transing the kids, equity, tax policy, foreign policy, and oil and gas.
They have run away from moderation. They abandoned the middle in the weird decision that they could somehow duplicate Barack Obama’s 2012 run.
I’ve said before the great unifying field theory of American politics for the Democratic Party was to try and duplicate Barack Obama’s 2012 coalition, which was a heavy minority turnout and white liberal ladies that was going to spur him to victory.
And Democrats keep trying it. It doesn’t work all that often. Trying that again is a giant failure.
You want to know why Trump’s numbers are up?
It’s because Democratic Party numbers are down. It’s because they went too far to the Left. They abandoned the middle. It’s that simple.
Every number here looks worse and worse for the Democratic Party and for Kamala Harris.
And they are freaking out.
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