Fresh surveys from seven battleground states show a scenario where Donald Trump could win in November with a decisive 296 electoral votes.
Trafalgar, which polled between Aug. 28-30, sees Trump sweeping 44 electoral votes from the pivotal Blue Wall states in November, eking out narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin inside the polls’ margins of error.
Insider Advantage handled polling in four other battlegrounds between Aug. 29-31, with Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina going to Trump.
To be sure, each of these states remains a statistical dead heat — meaning they could ultimately go either way come election day.
However, the polling is a departure from recent polling that shows Vice President Kamala Harris making gains in the states that will decide the election.
In the Wolverine State, Trafalgar has the former president scoring a narrow victory, 47% to 46.6%.
Pennsylvania shows a wider Trump lead: 47% to 45%. While winning by 2% wouldn’t constitute a landslide, it would be a bigger win than Trump’s modest 0.72% victory in the state eight years ago.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin splits the two extremes, with Trump over Harris 47% to 46%. Though that margin seems narrow, considering that Trump won the state by 0.77% in 2016 and lost it by 0.63% in 2020.
It’s worth noting that the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows all three of these states going toward Harris, with Michigan having shifted on Aug. 29.
In Arizona, Trump leads 49% to 48% in the race for 11 electoral votes, a smaller margin than the 0.3% Biden win four years ago, and one that would trigger an automatic recount in the state. Trump leads by more than 12 points with independents.
A 9.5% lead with independents buoys Trump in Nevada to a 48%-47% lead, where six electoral votes are at stake. Trump lost the state in both 2016 and 2020.
Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in North Carolina, less than the 1.34% margin of victory he secured in 2020, and despite Harris leading with independents 50% to 46%. He could take 16 electoral votes in the Tar Heel state.
Georgia represents the only deviation, with Harris up 48% to 47.6% in the race for 16 electoral votes. She holds the smallest possible lead with independents, 45.2% to 45.1%.
