New Texas Poll Is Out, and Stephen Colbert and Democratic Establishment Won’t Be Happy With It

Apparently, Texas Democrats haven’t gotten the memo: This time, it’s OK to vote for the privileged white cis hetero man.

According to The Hill, even though the Democratic establishment has lined up behind state Rep. James Talarico, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett still holds a massive lead in the latest poll in the Democratic nomination for Senate, 56 percent to 44 percent.

The University of Texas at Austin/Texas Politics Project poll was conducted over a two-week period and wrapped up just as early voting was about to begin. It had a margin of error of 5.1 points among Democratic voters. While it was taken among “1,300 self-declared, registered voters” in the state, it did “include an oversample of verified primary voters.”

The poll was taken from Feb. 2-16.

Texas Senate Democratic Primary

Jasmine Crockett: 56%
James Talarico: 44%@TxPolProject | 369 LV | 2/2-14https://t.co/41eD23vlHa pic.twitter.com/UUAHan2zAZ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 25, 2026

Now, there are two caveats to this. The first is that the poll was wrapped up on the same day that the faux squabble between Stephen Colbert and CBS over his interview of Talarico took place, Feb. 16. This vaulted Talarico to the front of the voting consciousness, although it’s worth noting that this race was already plenty expensive inside of Texas proper. (Early voting runs from Feb. 17-27, with the primary on March 3.)

This fake scandal basically involved Colbert pulling his interview with Talarico after he was informed by CBS’s legal staff that he would have to give Crockett equal time if she asked for it under the Federal Communications Commission’s guidelines. Thus, he published the interview on YouTube, claiming to have circumvented the perfidious Trump administration.

Of course, this was all a bunch of garbage; the person who stood to benefit the most from this was Crockett, not necessarily the GOP or anyone Donald Trump likes. It also gave left-wing media a chance to slobber all over Talarico.

Talarico is now Leftwing Media’s Texas Democrat Darling.

A giddy Lawrence O’Donnell had him on in the wake of the Colbert stunt to talk about how he might be the one to finally flip Texas blue.

Sorry, Jasmine. You’re out. https://t.co/zAfWDkmjHq pic.twitter.com/zHe3OYRRtb

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) February 18, 2026

The second caveat is that primaries are notoriously difficult to poll for, particularly in a red state that normally wouldn’t go blue, except in a year where the Democrats might do unusually well.

The problem with the first caveat is that this is already the most expensive Senate race in Texas history, and we’re not past the primary stage yet: $110 million.

While most of this spending has been on the Republican side — where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt are vying for the nomination — there’s been plenty spent making Talarico a brand. If he’s failed to make an impression before Colbert put his thumbs on the scales, that’s not for a lack of spending or air devoted to it, especially because of the why regarding the reason this seat is in play in the first place.

Paxton has led throughout in polls, although by a thinner margin than Crockett leads (only two points up in this survey, well within the margin of error). He’s seen as a more MAGA-friendly, less establishmentarian figure than Cornyn, who’s been labeled (not without reason) a career Beltway insider.

However, the problem with Paxton is that he has character issues that would negatively affect his electability, particularly in an off year; he’s seen (again, not without reason) as playing loose with public and private moral scruples.

Whether or not these issues should be issues is irrelevant. The fact is that they are — and trying to change perception at this late hour, after Paxton has been in state politics for almost all of the 21st century, is basically like trying to start your senior thesis the night before it’s due.

That being said, given the three-way race and the necessity of scoring over 50 percent, it’s almost certain that this would go to a two-man run-off on May 26. Given that the Democrats are running a two-person race, for all intents and purposes, this almost certainly means one will get over 50 percent.

If Crockett wins, Paxton-friendly voters will feel better about riding their candidate to victory in November. Heck, if Crockett wins, the GOP could run Snoopy and still escape with a victory. (You want to talk about intersectionality? Well, the Republicans were the first party to elect an animated beagle to a statewide position! His pronouns are woof/arf.)

And while the Colbert interview is mostly in our rear-view mirror at this point, the message it sent was pretty much summed up by this snarky response to the new poll:

“Listen up guys: this time we need to vote for the white man, not the black lady.” pic.twitter.com/CzcQ14u3N7

— bird cheat (@birdcheat) February 25, 2026

In fact, I’m halfway surprised that Obama hasn’t basically said this in so many words.

Putting Texas in play requires Talarico to win. Is he a centrist? No, but he’s not Jasmine Crockett — who is loud, embarrassing, and in it for the self-aggrandizement. Sure, she’s more famous, but for a reason. This is one of the few Crockett clips that can be played in a family setting, for instance:

NEW: Rep. Jasmine Crockett suggests the United States needs illegal immigrants because “we done picking cotton.”

Crockett made the argument that the U.S. needs immigrants for farming while speaking at Grace Baptist Church in Connecticut.

“So I had to go around the country and… pic.twitter.com/DUEZ4PskEg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 7, 2025

At least Talarico can plausibly position himself as a template Democrat, unlike Crockett. There’s a definite benefit to anonymity in this race: People know Crockett, the same way that they know Cornyn and Paxton. That means priced-in negatives. Talarico, fresh off of a faux controversy that Stephen Colbert — now as ever a primo tool of establishment Democrats — can do that.

But if these numbers are accurate, even that won’t erase a 12-point deficit in just a few days. Maybe they do need Obama to tell the woke DEI scolds that this time, they’ve gotta hold their noses and vote for the straight white dude.

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