Kamala Harris leads her closest potential 2028 Democrat presidential contender by 33 points, according to polling from Echelon Insights.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Vice President Kamala Harris — 41 percent
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom — 8 percent
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — 7 percent
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — 6 percent
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — 6 percent
On one side of the scenario, you can see why Democrat voters still support her, even after her decisive loss to President-elect Donald Trump two weeks ago. She still has the best name recognition. She’s been vice president for four years. She never worked at McDonald’s. She received 74 million votes. You can also argue that with only a little over 100 days to pull a campaign together, she did pretty well.
On the other side of the argument is the fact that Democrats have a pretty weak field. Newsom has done a terrible job governing California. Buttigieg is a weirdo who failed as transportation secretary. Walz is even weirder. Shapiro is Jewish, and that’s a problem for the pro-Hamas wing of the party.
Above all, who gazes upon Kamala Harris and sees her as ready for another run at a presidential campaign? Her first attempt to become president in 2020 was such a disaster she ended up dropping out before a single vote was cast. And while you can sympathize with Kamala being thrust into the middle of the 2024 campaign without much notice, one fact remains: she never improved as a candidate.
Over the hundred-plus days, she never improved at answering questions, talking to voters, or sitting for friendly interviews. It was shocking watching an adult woman with a law degree who has spent decades in the public eye flame out in one softball interview after another.
Listen, 41 percent might make her the favorite, but 59 percent of Democrats would like someone else. Of course, 92 percent don’t want second-place Newsom so, without a better choice arriving on the scene, 41 percent support could be considered good enough.
Overall, I think this poll shows just how weak the Democrat presidential bench is. Harris had $1.5 billion to spend, all of the corporate media, all of Hollywood, and most of Big Tech backing her, and she still lost the popular vote and every swing state. If Democrats are looking at her as their best hope in 2028, that tells me they do not see much in the others. No one excites them.
Four years, however, is a long time, especially in politics. In the same way Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump seemed to come out of nowhere, so too could an appealing Democrat.
Anyway, although I try to stay away from the prediction business, I’d be shocked if Kamala Harris was the 2028 nominee. Of course, if President Trump executes his agenda, all that peace and prosperity would make Vice President-elect JD Vance a shoo-in for 2028, and Democrats might see Kamala as the perfect sacrifice.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
