The Disney Grooming Syndicate’s upcoming Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters in five weeks and is tracking for a record-low $71 million to $85 million domestic weekend.
This is no surprise. As previously reported, The Mandalorian and Grogu did not even rank as this summer’s ten most anticipated movies.
For context, that’s a record-low for a modern/Disney-produced Star Wars movie.
For further context, the notorious flop, Solo: A Star Wars Story, opened to $88 million domestic back in 2018. If you account for inflation, that’s a $113 million opening.
Ignoring inflation, 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (by far the best Star Wars movie since Jedi), opened to $155 million. The Rise of Skywalker (2019) hit $176 million. The Last Jedi (2017) landed at $220 million. The Force Awakens (2015) grabbed $248 million.
Down, down, down, down… But that’s what happens when you take a universally beloved brand and put a narcissistic feminist like Kathleen “Franchise Killer” Kennedy in charge of it. She hates Star Wars. She believed Star Wars required fixing. So she added obnoxious feminist and gay themes, which killed the golden goose. Over ten years, she drained all the audience goodwill out of a brand once seen as infallible.
And when the fans complained, Ms. Franchise Killer blamed the fans, attacked them as sexist and racist, even though the fans loved the female-led Rogue One.
And now the goodwill is dead, and Star Wars is a heaping pile of nothing special, which is why things do not look promising for The Mandalorian and Grogu. And I could not be happier. Disney is evil, and there is nothing wrong with wishing ill on evil.
If Mandalorian and Grogu tracks the same as Solo, Solo ended up grossing just $393 million worldwide.
According to reports, Mandalorian and Grogu cost around $175 million to produce, which is pretty cheap for a Star Wars movie, and you can safely add another $100 million to promote. Using the accepted standard that theaters take about 50 percent, that puts break-even at right around $450 to $500 million.
Granted, it’s early. The groomers who run Disney have five weeks to churn up the hype machine. Plus, even if Mandalorian and Grogu opens low, if it’s actually good, word of mouth could bring an understandably weary and battered fanbase back.
Plus, and this is not a small thing, with big hits like Project Hail Mary and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie already packing them in, along with upcoming titles like The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mortal Kombat II tracking well, you could see Mandalorian and Grogu benefit from this run of crowd pleasers that remind people why they enjoy going to the movies. That can create a cascading effect that lifts everyone as people return to theaters weekend after weekend, hoping to relive that high.
The Mandalorian and Grogu will also benefit from its opening, four-day Memorial Day weekend, and no major competition opening two weeks prior to or after.
You never know with the box office, so all we can do is hope for the worst —because that’s what Disney deserves.
