New York Democrats are anxious that a ballot measure meant to excite the party’s rank and file could backfire by juicing Republican turnout in key congressional districts instead.
Dems across the country have relied on ballot measures on abortion to help get voters to the polls since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, finding success in red states like Ohio.
In New York, Gov. Hochul jumped on the trend by championing a 2024 measure known as the Equal Rights Amendment, which doesn’t specifically mention abortion but is intended to enshrine a right to the procedure in the state constitution.
Dem leaders believed an added bonus of the ballot measure would be bringing blue voters to the polls in Republican-leaning districts upstate and on Long Island, where Congressional victories are needed to help the party retake control of the House of Representatives.
Instead, Republicans have rallied against Proposition 1, warning its bloated, all-encompassing language is dangerously broad.
“Democrats say Proposition 1 is about enshrining abortion in the state Constitution, but what people will find is a whole lot of other things that have nothing to do with abortion,” said former GOP congressman and gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin. “Strategically, this has been a comedy of errors, except none of this is funny.”
The proposal would create a constitutional right for a host of far-left, transgender wish-list items, Zeldin claimed, including a right for men to use women’s bathrooms and biological boys playing in girls sports.
The text of the bill promises no person “shall be denied the equal protection of the laws of this state” regardless of “sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.”
“What I am finding is that Republicans and Independents and Democrats, when they become familiar with what Prop 1 actually does, they are turned off by it,” Zeldin said, adding he expected reaction against the measure to bolster vulnerable Republicans upstate and on Long Island.
While a Sienna poll last week found Prop 1 was backed by 64% of New Yorkers, internal surveys from consultants have found arguments against the measure gaining ground in battleground House districts, according to Politico.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman made trans issues part of his winning 2021 campaign where opposition to men playing in women’s sports is high.
The issue has spooked Democrats so much, last week Gov. Hochul dumped more than $1 million cash for television ads and a direct mail blitz to shore up the ballot measure.
“It’s in trouble because Republicans went on the attack and Democrats panicked and went on the retreat. If you drive out to Long Island or the upstate suburbs you don’t see any signs on ERA,” griped one frustrated Democratic insider, who conceded the ERA measure “could have been written a bit better.”
“Democrats surrendered the narrative to the Republicans and Kathy Hochul doesn’t have the credibility to advocate for it because of her own lack of standing,” the insider added.
A rep for Hochul said that “It’s critical voters know that an abortion amendment is on the ballot in New York this year. New Yorkers deserve the freedom to control their own lives and healthcare decisions, including the right to abortion regardless of who’s in office, and this important investment will get that message out across the state.”
