Poll: Paxton Holds Edge over Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff

A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding an advantage over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff, with the GOP electorate largely decided and highly certain to vote and with many of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s former supporters now backing Paxton.

Quantus Insights reported Tuesday that in a Texas Republican Senate primary runoff poll Paxton leads Cornyn 48.8 percent to 41.3 percent, with 9.9 percent undecided. The polling memo also noted that nearly 58 percent of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s supporters are now backing Paxton, suggesting consolidation among non-Cornyn voters following the March 3 primary.

The survey further indicates a relatively firm electorate: 88.1 percent of respondents say they are certain to vote, while 78.7 percent describe their choice as definite. Among respondents Paxton’s supporters appear slightly more locked in, with 88 percent saying their vote is definite compared to 86 percent of Cornyn supporters.

On voter certainty, the poll found 92 percent of Paxton voters say they are certain to vote, compared to 86 percent of Cornyn voters. The report characterized the runoff electorate as “largely settled, highly certain to vote, and not especially movable,” adding that Paxton enters with “the clearer edge in ballot support, favorability, and perceived effectiveness.”

The Quantus Insights data also examined the impact of endorsements, including from President Donald Trump. For Paxton, 25.3 percent of respondents said Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to support him, while 63 percent said it would make no difference. For Cornyn, 18.3 percent said the endorsement would make them more likely to support him, with 70 percent indicating no difference.

These results mirror earlier survey findings noted in previous Breitbart News coverage. A poll conducted by Impact Research and paid for by Democrat candidate Rep. James Talarico’s campaign found Paxton leading Cornyn by a wider margin, 53 percent to 37 percent, among likely Republican runoff voters. That survey also found Paxton held a significantly stronger favorability rating, with 64 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable, compared to Cornyn’s 45 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable.

Sen. John Cornyn’s campaign has come under increasing scrutiny following the revelation of his record of supporting President Joe Biden’s judicial nominees. Cornyn voted to confirm double-digit numbers of those nominees, many during the 117th Congress when Republicans had leverage in an evenly split Senate. With support from Cornyn and other Republicans, the confirmations did not require tie-breaking votes from Vice President Kamala Harris. The consequences for the Trump administration have been described as “severe,” as judges confirmed with that support have issued rulings affecting policies related to immigration enforcement, fighting fraud, and tariffs.

The Texas Republican Senate runoff is scheduled for May 26. The winner will advance to face Talarico, the Democratic nominee, in the general election.