In a new national poll released this week, voters signaled they are divided over the Biden administration’s Title IX changes to expand gender identity protections ahead of the general election.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights found that voters are almost evenly split on the controversial rule change from the Department of Education.
The latest poll of about 2,500 likely voters found 45% said they disapproved of the Biden administration’s equity-focused push to prohibit discrimination because of gender identity with 40% saying they approve of the changes.
David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square that neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear lead on the issue.
“So what we can say is that we know that this is a hotly contested issue and that we know that both sides have some messages that work for some voters, but that on Title IX specifically, no one is carrying the day yet,” Byler said.
“We can also say that on some of those other issues around sort of K-12 education and trans rights, you can clearly see a more conservative majority there.”
Byler said Title IX, a statute governing how all educational institutions that accept federal funds handle sex discrimination matters, essentially goes unnoticed by most voters.
“When you ask people about specific policies, the wonkier you get, the more people you get who decide on the spot, and the more fluidity you should expect,” Byler said.
“So Title IX is a specific issue that people just don’t know about unless you’re an absolute news junkie, or unless your life circumstances are such that you ran into this, people are not thinking about Title IX.”
“They might be thinking about trans issues in a broad cultural sense, but they don’t know what Biden did on Title IX,” Byler said. “They don’t know what’s going on. You have to do some explaining.”
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“And when you do some explaining, the way that you frame it really matters. So when we wrote this question, we tried to keep it short and keep it concise, but present what we thought were the strongest single arguments from both sides,” Byler added.
“The Biden Administration recently expanded Title IX, which originally protected people from discrimination based on sex in federally funded education programs, to include LGBTQ+ people,” the question reads.
“Some effects of the change include strengthening anti-harassment protections for LGBTQ+ people and allowing transgender women to use women’s bathrooms and locker rooms.”
“But pending lawsuits against the new rules have blocked its implementation in 26 states,” the question states. “Do you approve or disapprove of the changes to Title IX?”
Byler said it was important to offer the side that supports Biden’s changes, which he called a “pro-fairness argument,” and the side that’s against Biden’s changes, which includes “a lot of the cultural elements that we know to be unpopular about this situation.”
The Biden administration used its federal rulemaking power to add protections for LGBTQ+ students to the federal nondiscrimination statute, which it finalized this year.
However, as alluded to in the question, the changes have since been challenged in courts, which have prohibited the Biden administration from implementing the rule in 26 states and thousands of schools and institutions of higher learning while litigation continues.
The poll’s findings echoed the results of a poll from this summer, which found 48% of voters said they disagreed with the Biden administration’s expansion.
Byler said the slight changes are not enough to extrapolate a change in public opinion because it’s such a specific issue.
“I wouldn’t make too much of the difference between this poll’s result and the last poll’s result,” Byler said. “If you get into a detailed policy like this, your poll result will always be a little bit fuzzier.”
Byler said that voters are more decisive about specific policies and overt topics.
“If you have more direct questions about trans issues, which we have further down in the poll, you see a lot more consistent, a lot more clear divides, a lot fewer people saying ‘less sure,’ a lot fewer people in the ‘somewhat’ camps,” Byler said.
Because Republican attorneys general and advocacy groups have challenged the expansion of Title IX, saying it violates the intended purpose of the law and puts women and girls at risk, courts have prohibited the Biden administration from implementing the rule in 26 states.
Sixty-nine percent of Republican voters said they were opposed to the changes, with only 18% saying they were in favor of expanding the rule.
Conversely, 65% of Democrats said they favored expanding Title IX to include gender identity.
True independents, however, were more likely to disapprove of the changes, with 50% saying they oppose the rule and 30% saying they approve it.
Byler said that while Title IX is important, it’s a smaller issue for voters who are making up their minds ahead of the general election next month.
“People don’t vote directly on Title IX,” Byler said. “Title IX is one issue in a big basket of issues that people look at when they’re looking at these candidates.”
