A new study suggests that as many as 2.7 million non-citizens could vote in the 2024 election, leading some to voice concerns about coming election results potentially not reflecting the will of Americans citizens, who are the only ones permitted to vote in federal elections.
Just Facts, a nonprofit research institute, “found that about 10% to 27% of non-citizen adults in the U.S. are now illegally registered to vote,” an overview of the study states.
“The U.S. Census recorded more than 19 million adult non-citizens living in the U.S. during 2022,” it says. “Given their voter registration rates, this means that about two million to five million of them are illegally registered to vote. These figures are potentially high enough to overturn the will of the American people in major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.”
A 2014 study found that 81% of non-citizens who cast votes in 2008 did so for Democrats.
Election fraud more broadly has become a concern since the U.S. election system was upended in 2020. In that election, an unprecedented 70% of all votes cast were done by mail or early. Without basic exit polling for a vast majority of the vote, some have questioned how potential fraud could be detected in the first place, and subsequently looked into.
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James Agresti, the author of the Just Facts study, told The Washington Stand that it is relatively easy for non-citizens to register to vote.
“In no state in the nation are they required to provide proof of U.S. citizenship in order to register to vote,” Agresti said. “And if you look at the federal voter registration form, it says you can submit all different forms of ID to register. That could be a Social Security number, it could be a driver’s license number, or it could just be a utility bill. I mean, these are things that anyone can get by living here. They do not prove you’re a U.S. citizen.”
“And more than that, a lot of non-citizens have faked Social Security numbers, especially illegal immigrants,” he added. “That’s what they do to work.”
Agresti noted a recent estimate by the Social Security Administration that “tallied 2.5 million non-citizens who had Social Security numbers gained by using fake birth certificates or stealing those numbers from somebody else,” he said.
The Heritage Foundation’s Election Law Reform Initiative manager Hans von Spakovsky cited the Just Facts study testifying before Congress on May 16.
“This new study not only affirms the conclusions of the 2014 report, but, based on an analysis of the more recent data, estimates that 10 to 27% of all aliens currently in the U.S. are registered to vote and that 5 to 13% of them will illegally vote in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections,” he said.
Kerri Toloczko, the executive director of the Election Integrity Network, suggested that the percentage of non-citizens voting today is likely even higher than the last time the rate was calculated.
“A 2014 academic journal found that 6.4% of noncitizens voted in 2008,” Toloczko said. “There are about 24 million non-citizens in the U.S. right now. If they voted only at the same rate of 6.4% this year as they did in 2008, they would account for 1.5 million votes.”
“Based on the increased noncitizen activity at state DMVs, and the work of left-wing voter registration activists, this 6.4% could be much higher than it was in 2008,” she added. “We could be looking at over two million unlawful noncitizen votes.”
The estimates cited in the 2014 paper and the Just Facts study have been criticized by a Washington Post fact-checker and think tanks like the Cato Institute. The latter, for example, cites criticism that suggests the number of non-citizens voting in U.S. elections is “zero.”
“Zero, of course, functions here as a rounding number and not as an assertion that literally no noncitizens voted in 2008. It signifies simply that alternative rounding numbers, such as 5 or 3 or 1 percent, would likely be less accurate,” the Cato article says.
Illegal immigration has become a dominating issue in the 2024 presidential election. Former President Donald Trump has promised to close the porous border and deport illegals. The former president has criticized the Biden-Harris administration for permitting potentially dangerous foreigners to enter the U.S. completely unvetted, leaving Americans vulnerable. He’s also argued that the steady flow of millions of illegals is hurting the American worker.
His Democrat opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has long been soft on illegal immigration, previously stating that it should not be a crime to enter the U.S. illegally. She’s also advocated perks for illegals, such as sex-change operations for illegal inmates. Since she became the Democrats’ nominee, however, Harris staffers have claimed Harris is for strong border security. Her campaign has even used images of Trump’s border wall in a campaign video suggesting the Veep is tough at the border.
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