Invest 99L is becoming better organized and remains on track to develop into a tropical depression within days.
Florida residents are now keeping an eye on the system, which forecasters say will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara by the weekend.
An “invest” designation allows NOAA forecasters to run specialized computer forecast models to get additional data on the disturbance’s future growth potential.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Wednesday that the disturbance continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, and the system will likely become a tropical depression soon as it slowly moves into the western Caribbean.
The NHC is giving the system a near-certain chance of developing soon.
“The steering currents across the Caribbean are very light, so eventually, ‘likely-Sara’ is forecast to meander in the western Caribbean near Central America through the weekend,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
After that, computer forecast models indicate that the system could strengthen into a tropical storm as it hangs out in the area and takes advantage of the warm waters and low wind shear.
The FOX Forecast Center said those conditions could allow future Sara to become a hurricane – possibly a strong one.
Regardless of development, heavy precipitation is expected to fall across the region from Jamaica and portions of Haiti to Central America and Mexico.
From there, forecasters said an area of high pressure will build to the north of the system, and where it sets up will ultimately determine the path of future Sara.
The FOX Forecast Center said the system may move into Central America or move north and track into the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week and could eventually impact Florida.
Florida residents need to keep close eye on tropics forecast
Norcross said that a consensus of computer forecast models shows the system forming near or offshore the Honduras-Nicaragua border and has a good chance of becoming a hurricane by early next week.
Then what?
Norcross said that computer models show likely-Sara moving to the north, threading the needle between Mexico and Cuba, so a powerful hurricane could emerge in the Gulf of Mexico.
“On the other hand, many possible forecasts take the system over or near Central America or Cuba, including over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula,” Norcross said. “Those predictions generally show a weaker storm in the Gulf of Mexico.”
Norcross said that if the system maintains a core and decent structure during its time over land, there is plenty of warm water in the southern Gulf of Mexico for it to reorganize and strengthen before it reaches Florida if it heads that way.
“The fact that so many of the variety of computer forecast models are indicating a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change,” Norcross said. “As always, when a system is just developing, forecast errors are likely to be large.”
Norcross continued and said that there was nothing to do right now except stay informed, so be sure to download the free FOX Weather app and enable notifications to be alerted to any changes in the forecast.
