Former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala by one percentage point in the battleground states of Georgia and Arizona and all tied up in North Carolina, according to a new poll of likely voters.
The Marist College swing-state surveys found Trump leading Harris, 50% to 49%, among likely general election voters in the Peach and Copper States.
In North Carolina, the former president and vice president were tied for likely voters’ support at 49%.
The polls show that Harris, 59, is having difficulty maintaining the margins of victory that Joe Biden had in the 2020 election among independents and black voters — but overperforming with white voters.
Among independents in Georgia, Harris is beating Trump 51% to 46%, though Biden, now 81, carried independents in 2020 by at least 9 percentage points, according to exit polls.
Likely independent voters in Arizona also favor Harris over Trump, 51% to 47%, but also supported Biden by 9 points in 2020.
Shockingly, Harris is running 24 percentage points behind Biden with Latinos in Arizona — and losing their support to Trump, 49% to 51%.
A majority of white voters back Trump in Georgia (66%) and Arizona (51%), while nearly all black voters support Harris in Georgia (86%).
The candidates remain competitive in most generational brackets except among Millennials and GenZ, most of whom support Harris.
Independent voters in North Carolina split evenly at 48% for both Trump and Harris, whereas Biden won the demographic by four percentage points in 2020, exit polls show.
Black voters in the state go for Harris over Trump, 86% to 13%, but Biden received 92% of the black vote in North Carolina four years ago.
The 45th president is backed by 59% of white voters in the Tar Heel State, while 40% of them prefer Harris.
Just 3% of likely voters remain undecided about their chosen candidate on Election Day 2024.
“North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is both the Harris and Trump campaigns’ backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “North Carolina is so close that the 5 regions in the state line up now almost exactly as they did 4 years ago. It’s as if the Biden years and the 2024 campaign haven’t happened.”
Still, the president could be dragging down his former running-mate as 54% of adults surveyed in the state disapprove of the job Biden is doing in the Oval Office, compared with 42% who approve.
By the issues, likely voters in Georgia (34%) and North Carolina (32%) care the most about inflation as an election issue, but Arizona likely voters care most about preserving democracy (27%), with inflation close behind (26%).
Immigration is the third-most cited issue by potential voters in the three states, each of which have recorded a decrease in concern since March.
The polling questions consistently show Trump, 78, is considered a strong leader and a change agent by the electorate, whereas Harris is considered a candidate who most closely shares their values and is trustworthy.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein, however, is enjoying an 11-point lead over Republican opponent Mark Robinson, 54% to 43%, in North Carolina, the polls show.
Nearly half of North Carolinans (48%) also have an unfavorable opinion of Robinson.
Robinson’s senior campaign staff resigned en masse last weekend after a CNN report revealed their boss made lewd comments and proclaimed he was a “black Nazi” under a pseudonym on a porn site a decade ago.
Trump endorsed Robinson for governor during the Republican primary but has kept quiet about him since the scandal.
The North Carolina poll was conducted from Sept. 19 to 24 and surveyed 1,605 adults in the state, at least 1,348 of whom were considered likely voters. The margin of error was between 3.4% and 3.7%, plus or minus.
