Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground with Hispanic voters — and it could be decisive for the outcome of the election in November, according to a new poll.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ standing with the key voting bloc, meanwhile, appears to be slipping, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Hispanic voters — even those who weren’t born in the US — aren’t nervous about his tough-on-illegal immigration message.
Despite Democrats’ efforts to scare Hispanic voters away from Trump over his immigration rhetoric, a firm 51% of Hispanic respondents born in another country feel that he is not talking about them when he talks about deporting illegal immigrants, according to the poll.
Among Hispanic respondents born in the US, that figure jumps to 67% who feel he isn’t talking about them.
Some 40% of Hispanic respondents born outside of the US believed Trump’s tough immigration rhetoric was aimed at them, while 30% of Hispanic voters writ large felt the same way, per the poll.
Harris, 59, had a 19-percentage point lead over Trump with the critical group of voters (56% to 37% among likely Hispanic voters), marking a significant decline from where Democrats have stood in recent election cycles.
The poll gauged a significant discrepancy between male and female Hispanic voters, with Harris up 62% to Trump’s 31% among Hispanic women. Her edge then sunk among Hispanic men, 48% to Trump’s 45%.
Gender divisions have been a key theme of the 2024 presidential election, including among other minority groups. Former President Barack Obama raised eyebrows last week for complaining about black men for not being enthusiastic about Harris.
“We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama said last week.
Democrats haven’t fallen below the 60% threshold with Hispanic voters since John Kerry’s loss to former President George W. Bush in 2004. Though Democrats have generally been in decline with the key group since the recent highs of the Obama years.
Back in 2016, for instance, Democrats had won a roughly 40-point lead (68% to 28%) with Hispanic voters in the presidential contest. In 2020, the party scored a 26-point lead (62% to 36%), per the poll.
Trump has faced backlash at times for comments deriding immigrants. Late last year, for example, he took flack for saying, “They’re poisoning the blood of our country.”
Fifty-five percent of Hispanics felt that “people have good reason to be offended by Donald Trump’s words” compared to 40% who argued that those who get offended take his words “too seriously.”
On policy, many Hispanic voters were largely mixed on Trump’s proposals.
A considerable 43% of likely Hispanic voters support or somewhat support Trump’s marquee proposal to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, compared to 54% who oppose or somewhat oppose the move, according to the poll.
When it comes to Harris’ push for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, 67% backed the measure, compared to 29% opposed, per the poll.
Trump has ripped Harris’ policies on immigration, calling it amnesty, and has instead vowed to deport illegal immigrants that have taken up residency in the US.
“If Kamala is reelected, your town, and every town just like it, all across Wisconsin and all across our country — the heartland, the coast, it doesn’t matter — will be transformed into a third-world hellhole,” Trump said at a rally late last month.
Simultaneously, Trump has stressed that he wants immigrants, provided that they come into the US legally.
Hispanic voters were largely split on deportation, with 45% either strongly or somewhat supporting it, compared to 48% somewhat or strongly opposing it.
The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled 902 Hispanic voters between Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among likely Hispanic voters.
Other polls have similarly gauged Trump chipping away at Harris’ support among Hispanic and Latino voters.
Last month, for instance, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that Trump scored 51% to Harris’ 47% among Latino voters. The New York Times/Siena College poll is widely regarded for its methodology.
