COLUMBUS, Ohio — A powerful Democrat in an ever-reddening state, Sen. Sherrod Brown is on Ohio’s endangered species list. And two new polls showing Brown falling behind his GOP opponent for the first time this cycle may mean he’s in more danger than expected.
The ActiVote poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters between Aug. 16 and Sept. 22, shows Brown’s Republican challenger, businessman Bernie Moreno, 2.2 points ahead, 51.1% to 48.9%.
The other poll comes from RMG Research, which surveyed 781 likely voters from Sept. 18 to 20. Moreno leads by 2 points in this survey as well, 48% to Brown’s 46%.
Both polls show the race within their margins of error, +/- 4.9 points in the ActiVote poll and 3.5 points in RMG’s.
This Ohio Senate race has been labeled a toss-up since the very start, but Brown has maintained a 3- to 5-point edge in the polls before these data. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Brown a 3.8-point advantage.
“This is bad,” the Ohio Democratic Party said in a campaign fundraising email soon after the polls were released. “We can’t let Bernie Moreno gain any more ground — not if we want to keep the Senate blue.“
Analysts say Moreno’s bump likely comes down to three major factors:
- Donald Trump: Trump holds a growing lead over Kamala Harris in Ohio, 50% to 44% per RCP’s average, likely giving Moreno a boost downballot from the former president.
- Inflation: Moreno’s message has centered on job creation, tax cuts and wage boosts for Ohio workers. The economy is the No. 1 issue for Ohio voters, and Moreno is making Brown the face of inflation in the state.
- Immigration: Even before Springfield made national headlines, immigration was a top-three issue for Ohioans. Moreno has made immigration reform a cornerstone of his campaign by supporting Trump’s mass deportation schemes.
Brown’s defeat would be another major blow to Ohio’s swing-state status, which has been in question for years as the state increasingly elects Republicans at the state and federal level.
The GOP controls all three branches of state government, plus the offices of its secretary of state, attorney general and treasurer.
Brown’s historically solid poll numbers and Ohio’s recent willingness to pass left-leaning ballot measures like marijuana legalization gave Dems some hope the state wasn’t completely lost to the GOP, but this good news for Moreno is another blow to the blue party.
“Sherrod Brown sold out his working-class base to toe the Democrat Party line,” said Philip Letsou, the spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign arm.
“He’s been voting in lockstep with Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris for open borders, higher taxes, and anti-worker green energy policies. Now, after over 50 years of Brown in politics, Ohio voters are ready to send him home.”
Both the Moreno and Brown campaigns declined to comment for this story.
