WASHINGTON — Veteran GOP strategists overwhelmingly said Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris won her debate with former President Donald Trump — stoking internal worry and debate over the likely impact on what’s expected to be the closest election in at least two decades.
One prominent Republican operative supportive of Trump, 78, told The Post they believed Tuesday’s ABC News debate in Philadelphia likely shifted popular support one percentage point in the Democrat’s favor — at least for now.
If true, that swing could tilt battleground states that will determine the outcome of the Electoral College to Harris — with the 59-year-old and Trump currently tied in Pennsylvania and within one point of each other in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls.
Other Trump allies argued that a tactical win for the veep might not actually matter — pointing to pre-debate polling from the New York Times and Siena College that found 28% of likely voters said they needed to learn more about Harris, while just 9% said the same of Trump.
“If you are an undecided voter who wanted to, finally, hear Kamala Harris’ policy agenda last night, all you got were scripted lines of attack against Trump because Harris is the incumbent and has no plan to change course,” a former Trump White House official told The Post.
One veteran Republican campaign strategist lamented that the debate was “just a missed opportunity” for Trump to gain ground on Harris — with the GOP nominee going off on “obvious tangents” that distracted from his criticism of her record as vice president and flip-flops on major issues.
“The one that really stuck out to me,” this person recalled, “is the moderator asking her about Afghanistan, which should be like a layup, and then Trump wants to go back and relitigate, you know, NATO stuff.”
“One of the [Trump] lines I thought was most misaligned was ‘Biden hates her,’” the strategist added.
“Regardless if that’s true or not, that’s not even helpful for voters to think, and it’s antithetical to the larger point that you’re trying to drive home.”
Although Trump publicly claimed he won the debate, many of his supporters privately — and in some cases publicly — said otherwise, with former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) declaring on Fox News Wednesday morning that the forum was “the land of missed opportunities” for the 45th president.
Both sides do have some data to point to for upbeat spin — as insiders note that there are likely to be many additional twists in the campaign in the 55 days before the Nov. 5 election.
Trump allies highlighted a Reuters focus group with 10 undecided voters, of whom six said post-debate they favored Trump and three of whom picked Harris.
A contradictory CNN/SSRS snap survey of debate watchers found that viewers were evenly divided on their expectations ahead of the debate but that afterward a clear 63% said Harris won.
‘For the Trumpists, it won’t matter’
A major point of discussion following the debate is whether Trump — the dominant figure in US politics for nearly a decade and a master of generating fresh news cycles — would suffer any long-term detriment.
“For the Trumpists, it won’t matter,” said Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist and commentator from swing state Michigan.
“Like a losing sports team, they will complain about the referees even though the former president clearly dropped the football. Trump lost the debate because of his performance or lack thereof. That’s what happens when you wing it,” he said.
“Between unbalanced fact-checking by the moderators and out-of-context quotes on both sides trying to throw political barbs, undecided voters are left with only style and popularity to gauge their vote for president,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson of South Carolina, a former TV journalist.
“Trump unfortunately walked into traps he shouldn’t have, but I don’t think there was a single moment that stood out in people’s minds that’s gonna change how they think of the race,” Wilson said.
“They were horrific,” the veteran campaign adviser said of moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis. “I really don’t know what Republican campaigns are gonna do long-term. I mean, it’s clear that the sort of mainstream outlets have really decided that they have an ethical, moral obligation to just be completely in the bag for Democrats in a ridiculous way.
“I’m not necessarily the most Trump-aligned human being in the world, but it was a total f–king hit job from start to finish,” he added. “It’s disgraceful. David Muir should never be anywhere near a debate stage again.”
Another Republican strategist said Harris was “disciplined” on stage — managing to avoid scrutiny of her record and policy reversals by staying on script, while repeatedly derailing Trump by needling him on rally crowd sizes and other extraneous matters.
“Kamala Harris won the debate because she presented herself as a competent leader with a plan to improve the lives of Americans, even if that is a total fiction,” this strategist told The Post.
“But perhaps the most devastating aspect of her performance was that she repeatedly distracted Trump and knocked him off message. She was the most disciplined candidate on stage, and that was extremely disappointing to witness.”
“She released her plan, like, the morning of the debate,” former New Hampshire GOP legislator Ross Berry told The Post of the Democratic nominee.
“They’re trying to blank-slate Kamala,” added Berry, who also served as director of the pro-Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, anti-Trump Never Back Down PAC. “Just have people kind of project onto her what they want to believe. So I think the more debates that he does, the less opportunity they have to run these, you know, ‘vibes’ campaigns instead of these policy campaigns.”
One silver lining for Republican strategist John Feehery was that Trump didn’t come across as excessively belligerent against Harris.
“The great thing about this debate is, he wasn’t a replay of the first debate against Biden in 2020 where he lost the election. I don’t think he acted like a jerk,” Feehery told The Post.
Feehery voiced regret that Trump didn’t engage in more rigorous preparation and stressed that the Harris-Walz campaign “pretty much broadcast that they were gonna try to get under his skin.” He also noted that Trump seemed underprepared for predictable questions on topics like abortion.
“Inside the Beltway, Trump clearly lost,” he summed up. “But outside the Beltway, I think he probably held his own and might have won.”
‘He didn’t have a good day’
Almost as soon as Tuesday’s debate ended, the Harris campaign called for a second showdown — an offer Feehery believed Trump should decline.
“I think she’s a very good liar,” he said. “I think it’s not worth it.”
Others disagreed.
“He’s a good debater. I mean, I don’t think anybody would argue with the fact that he didn’t have a good day — he did not have a great debate, but it [would give] him another opportunity to talk directly to the American people,” Republican strategist Brian Darling argued.
Darling, a former staffer to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), conveyed optimism that Trump would learn lessons from his first debate, “stay more on message” and refrain from getting distracted.
While acknowledging that Harris “did a pretty good job” of pushing her views, Darling contended that Trump had some successes with his economic and immigration messaging.
He further surmised that when the dust settles, the debate won’t “matter that much” because the news cycle will move on rapidly before election night.
“We dwell on poll numbers and debates and talk about them incessantly, but they don’t really move that many voters,” he argued. “What moves voters are the issues.”
Given the array of polling pegging a very close race between Trump and Harris, Republican strategist Terry Holt mused that Trump’s debate performance could have an impact around the margins after Harris emerged as the “clear winner.”
While it may be a “factor” in the election outcome, it probably won’t be the “determining factor,” said Holt, a former congressional aide and adviser to President George W. Bush.
“Donald Trump didn’t need to win the debate, and he didn’t,” he said. “Kamala took the task so much more seriously and was so much better prepared.”
