DETROIT — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer isn’t running for election this year, but she may still lose.
If the Michigan House of Representatives flips red in November, the Democrat darling who’s gained national attention will become a lame duck for the final two years of her tenure.
Michigan Republicans could retake the House by flipping just two seats, but observers say there are four races to watch — all with Democratic incumbents — that will determine Whitmer’s fate through 2026:
- District 109: Jenn Hill (D) vs. Karl Bohnak (R). Republicans believe Hill, a first-term lawmaker, is too liberal for her Upper Peninsula district.
- District 103: Betsy Coffia (D) vs. Lisa Trombley (R). Coffia has a reputation in the district for focusing more on Washington issues than Lansing issues. Trombley, meanwhile, is considered a strong candidate who can connect with voters.
- District 58: Nate Shannon (D) vs. Ron Robinson (R). Republicans feel the 2022 election was a wave year for Democrats, and if the area votes as it usually would, a Republican can pick it up.
- District 27: Jaime Churches (D) vs. Rylee Linting (R). Churches was swept into office in 2022 with major support from teachers unions. That backing could cost her in 2024, as Michigan’s education metrics have continued to fall post-pandemic.
Democrats hold a 56-54 edge over Republicans in the Michigan House — but these four races could help Republicans regain the majority they lost in 2022, during Whitmer’s re-election campaign.
That year, Whitmer’s win brought a blue wave with her, sweeping Michigan’s upper and lower chambers for the first time in 40 years.
As one lawmaker famously said afterward, Democrats “hold all the gavels” in Lansing — and this November, Republicans are betting the past two years of Democratic domination have been all the state can stomach.
“Michiganders realize that the complete Democrat control in Lansing has completely failed them,” state Rep. Bill G. Schuette, House Republican Campaign Committee chair, told The Post.
“From cutting school safety funding by more than 90% to banning the use of natural gas in our state, it’s clear that Michigan Democrats are out of touch and out of control.”
If Michigan is indeed fed up, November’s election could temper Whitmer’s meteoric rise to prominence as a national figure in the Democratic Party.
Whitmer was one of the politicians poised to replace President Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket. Serendipitously, Biden’s political demise following his historically bad debate performance in June occurred not even two weeks before the release of Whitmer’s much-anticipated memoir, “True Gretch.”
When Harris was elevated to Democratic nominee, Whitmer declined to join her as running mate. She could be banking on a Harris loss, which would give Gretch the chance to throw her hat in the ring in 2028.
But if Harris wins in November, she’d more than likely run again in 2028. By then, Whitmer would be almost two years out of office, with her executive career in the rearview mirror. That’s even more the case if Harris wins a hypothetical reelection in 2028 — pushing Whitmer’s presidential hopes all the way to 2032, when she’ll be six years past the governorship.
A source with the Michigan House Republicans’ campaign arm says the GOP believes it can pick up anywhere from five to 12 seats in November. Former Republican Gov. Rick Snyder has stayed relatively quiet on state politics — until this year, that is, when he joined the effort to win back the House.
Snyder has helped Republicans raise money. But he’s also encouraged the candidates to “focus on real, actionable solutions rather than divisive rhetoric or empty sound bites.”
Over the summer, House Republicans released a 10-point plan called the “Mission for Michigan,” outlining what they would change if they took the House.
No. 1 on the list?
“Make Michigan more affordable.”
